Monmouth: Ohio: kasich +5, Clinton +14

[PeteB]

This is now the 5th consecutive OH poll, since March 8th, where Kasich is either ahead (3 times) or tied (2 times) with Trump. It's pretty much over for Trump in OH. And it's not for lack of trying - Trump even pulled out Christie and his surrogates from FL and into OH to try and salvage this. Good try Donald, but no cigar!

Kasich should now try and capitalize on this and eke out the best possible result in IL as well (although an outright win may be problematic, with Cruz also doing well)!

[PeteB]

So the late polling consensus is basically that the Chicago violence didn't matter either way?

It seemed to help Trump slightly in Florida.

It's still too early for most people to process this. You will see some effects tomorrow, but the real effects will be felt in the next 2 weeks. And they will NOT be pro-Trump.

[PeteB]

So the late polling consensus is basically that the Chicago violence didn't matter either way?

It seemed to help Trump slightly in Florida.

It's still too early for most people to process this. You will see some effects tomorrow, but the real effects will be felt in the next 2 weeks. And they will NOT be pro-Trump.

I didn't just pull that out of my butt. Look:

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I never said that you did - I saw that poll comment as well!

It's normal human psychology. If you are a (potential) Trump supporter, the first reaction is disbelief and denial. However, as the violence and rhetoric get uglier, and you start picturing your own family and community getting involved in that, other feelings will prevail, and more and more people will cool off. The important thing is to have a real alternative candidate when that happens.