538 model & poll tracker thread

[Dr. Arch]

Idk if this is just me but I feel like ever since the conventions, the majority of blue bubbles are above Biden's actual % in the tracker and most the the red bubbles are below Trumps %. It kinda seems like there tracker is more reactive to polls that show "good news" for Trump, even if they aren't the most reputable pollsters. If you take out the lines and just look at the bubbles you would think Biden would be at more like 51.5% and Trump would be 42%.

Better quality polls are showing a closer race and once again, Silver adjusts for shy Trump voters.

Closer race once again? +7.0? It was +7 on Sept.1, and it's just moved at noise levels since even before then.

[Dr. Arch]

Two big changes in the 538 model today:

1) Joe Biden finally broke through 77%, and now stands at a whopping 78% chance to win.
2) His median EV performance projection, 331, has now been comfortably above the cone of uncertainty for over a sustained week for the first time. This should shrink further within the next two weeks should polling remain the same or become even more favorable to him.

Statistically speaking, those are big events that shift the probabilities even further in Joe's favor.

[Dr. Arch]

North Carolina is now expected to vote for Biden by exactly the same margin as Ohio (.6%).

This is an effect of OH moving further left on the model, correct?

[Dr. Arch]

The 538 model no longer projects that Trump winning the popular vote is a possibility within 80% of the outcomes. The cone of uncertainty is no longer crossing over the margins of error for each candidate's potential final PV range.

[Dr. Arch]

The 538 model no longer projects that Trump winning the popular vote is a possibility. The cone of uncertainty is no longer crossing over the margins of error for each candidate's potential final PV range.

It's a possibility, but it's not within the median 80%. The model currently shows a 10% chance of Trump winning the popular vote. You can see this if you scroll down just below this graph.

Yep, fixed. Thanks.

[Dr. Arch]

86-14 now.

Wisconsin has replaced Pennsylvania as the tipping point state.

Yes, in the sense that PA zoomed left enough that it pushed Wisconsin down, even though Wisconsin has been steady. NE-02 is about to cross into likely territory as well.

[Dr. Arch]

86-14 now.

Wisconsin has replaced Pennsylvania as the tipping point state.

Yes, in the sense that PA zoomed left enough that it pushed Wisconsin down, even though Wisconsin has been steady. NE-02 is about to cross into likely territory as well.

I selfishly want Wisconsin to be the projected tipping point state. I am planning on live mapping (two party vote and swing) the state on election night.

You might just get your wish the way that polling is looking like in PA.

[Dr. Arch]

86-14 now.

Wisconsin has replaced Pennsylvania as the tipping point state.

Yes, in the sense that PA zoomed left enough that it pushed Wisconsin down, even though Wisconsin has been steady. NE-02 is about to cross into likely territory as well.

I selfishly want Wisconsin to be the projected tipping point state. I am planning on live mapping (two party vote and swing) the state on election night.

You might just get your wish the way that polling is looking like in PA.

I think it needs to be pointed out that the states are not ordered by probability, they're ordered by expected margin of victory. It's a subtle point, but important

Yes, which is precisely my point in terms of the model and expectations.

[Dr. Arch]

I loled

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1316745933892325377?s=19

No, Nate, you just have to put more work into it.

[Dr. Arch]

The model now says that Biden is "clearly favored".