Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Dr. Arch]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/248633/post-mueller-report-trump-approval-back-high.aspx

With that rate Trump will win reelection in landslide! 

What rate, exactly? A trend line that's basically 0?

[Dr. Arch]

Me, after reading comments after an obvious joke >>>

One does not joke with stats.

[Dr. Arch]

Me, after reading comments after an obvious joke >>>

One does not joke with stats.

83% of professional statisticians disagree with this.

THIS IS NOT NORMAL!

[Dr. Arch]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

Amazing to see Arizona zoom to the left of Nevada (rolls eyes at Gravis).

The approval number in the new Gravis NV poll is suspect (the crosstabs make no sense at all), which is why I didn't post it here.

Remember to never trust NV polls. It's probably more reliable to extrapolate from neighboring states. If AZ is at around 47/52, then NV could be around 44/55.

[Dr. Arch]

Civiqs, Sep. 21-24, 1548 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 54

Warren 48, Trump 44
Biden 47, Trump 43
Sanders 46, Trump 44
Harris 44, Trump 44

There's at least a couple of polls now where Warren is doing better than Biden in general election matchups, which provides reasonable evidence that Biden's numbers were not exclusive to him, but rather an overall product of the support he presently had.

[Dr. Arch]

Virginia: University of Mary Washington, Sep. 3-15, 1009 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Biden 55, Trump 37
Warren 53, Trump 38
Sanders 53, Trump 38
Harris 50, Trump 38

Safe D

[Dr. Arch]

CNN:

Nevada Trump approval (RV):
Approve 44
Disapprove 49

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/28/rel1_sc.pdf

South Carolina Trump approval (RV):
Approve 51
Disapprove 46

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/28/rel1_nv.pdf

Interestingly both of those results line up with the Gov races in 2018.

Never trust Nevada or Michigan polling.

[Dr. Arch]

Mississippi-Mason Dixon:

Approve 54%
Disapprove 42%

Source

A state rarely polled chimes in. Mississippi, long the most backward state in America, is backward in its political life... but note that Trump approval is under 55%. Mississippi will be one of the best states for Trump in 2020. This tepid level of approval says much. 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

You need to flip the color on MS to blue.