Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Dr. Arch]

Just got my absentee ballot in the mail today, and will be sending off in the next day or two:

FF!

[Dr. Arch]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

She has way more in-state small dollar donations than Brian Kemp. Just because Brian Kemp has more wealthy donors to choose from inside the state doesn't make him a better candidate. 

Small donors are still a fractional source of funding for Abrams' campaign.  She's raised more money from big-time out-of-state donors like George Soros (who gave $1.5 million) that small donors, and many of her small donors are probably from out-of-state as well.

Like it or not, Abrams' fundraising is a weakness that Kemp will be able to capitalize upon.

About 20% of all donations is not "fractional," and what does the "Georgia" category mean? This is disingenuous at least.

[Dr. Arch]

So it's continuing to get less white and more female.

If you had to guess what the margin is among these votes, what do you think it is now?

Yuuuuge

[Dr. Arch]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

So, you're saying Democrats won't be making significant gains this year? Is there always gonna be a "shy GOP vote" now?

[Dr. Arch]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

So, you're saying Democrats won't be making significant gains this year? Is there always gonna be a "shy GOP vote" now?

Absolutely, at least until Trump leaves office.

 

[Dr. Arch]

Just voted with my brother. I voted completely straight ticket he said he pretty much did). We were in and out in about ten minutes.

FFs

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1055882259469864967

He's such a freedom fighter!

One of my favorite senators in this Congress.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/WestmorelandATL/status/1056759775814434818

52% AA!?

[Dr. Arch]

If Abrams gets 95% of blacks, 27% of whites and 70% of the rest in early voting, that'll give her a 8-9 point lead (53% of the EV). If EV ends up being two-thirds of the electorate, she can lose the ED vote by 10 points and still skirt by right at 50%.

(53% * 0.67) + (44% * 0.33) = 50.03%

This of course has yet to include the anywhere from 20-50k mail ballots that'll likely be returned over the next 4 days.

Things are looking really good for Abrams.

[Dr. Arch]

If Abrams gets 95% of blacks, 27% of whites and 70% of the rest in early voting, that'll give her a 8-9 point lead (53% of the EV). If EV ends up being two-thirds of the electorate, she can lose the ED vote by 10 points and still skirt by right at 50%.

(53% * 0.67) + (44% * 0.33) = 50.03%

This of course has yet to include the anywhere from 20-50k mail ballots that'll likely be returned over the next 4 days.

Things are looking really good for Abrams.

This thread is confusing.  Either things look really good for her or pretty underwhelming.

Welcome to early vote #analysis!

 

[Dr. Arch]

I'm getting constant ads for McBath/Abrams on YouTube. I can't think of any reason Google would think that I live in Georgia, besides visiting this thread often? Thanks, guys.

In our 2 "swing precincts" in Whitfield County:

Total Votes Cast in 2014 (EV + ED): 768
Total Votes Cast as of 2 PM (incl. EV): 1330

This is either really good or really bad for us.

Probably really good? I don't think enthusiasm is going to advantage the GOP when an unpopular Republican is in office.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm quite relieved by the outcome of this election. If I could've guaranteed that any single democrat would lose, it would've been Abrams.
It's very satisfying to see her go down. Hopefully this is the last time we have to deal with her. Congratulations, Governor-Elect Kemp!

Except this may still go to a runoff?

Why would you support someone who clearly rigged the election in his favor? Oh... nvm, lol.

[Dr. Arch]

Kemp will more likely than not still win this, but boy, this result (especially the county map) should send chills down every GA Republican's spine.

Barring changes in trends, GA Republicans' days are numbered. They're 2-3 cycles away (2022-2026) from complete elimination.

[Dr. Arch]

How many outstanding ballots are there still?

[Dr. Arch]

I like Stacey, she ran an incredible campaign and she should be proud of herself,
I think she has a bright ahead of her
however, I do think she could've conceded graciously

think about what Kemp did to effect this election. He purged the voters, did everything in his power to give him the win. And Abrams should "graciously concede"? That is surrendering, IMO.

My point of view exactly. Kemp doesn't deserve a "gracious" concession.

[Dr. Arch]

Finally saw a Raffensperger ad (there have been plenty of Barrow ads) attacking Barrow as a threat to the integrity of future elections.

I sometimes wonder how some Republicans can sleep at night.