Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Dr. Arch]

I bet Trump will have hit sub-30 by the time this thread is done.

He'll be rotting in jail by then my friend.

As quickly as we go through these threads now-a-days, even if Trump's been indicted, I can't see a House impeachment having gotten past the committee stage at the most, even if the GOP decides to abandon Trump after an indictment.

[Dr. Arch]

Idk how many times I have to say this but Trump's negative number is NOT the ceiling it is for most candidates. On Election Day 2016 he had a 61% disapproval rating in Wisconsin, but won almost 20% of those who disapproved of him.

It is not valid to cite disapprovals as baked in voters against Trump. There are literally millions of people who openly hate him but would vote for him given almost any excuse or flaw in a Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he will win 20% of those who disapprove of him again in any state, but he may well win 5-10%. And if you give him the undecided voters in such a generous manner (I think you shouldn't, depending on the opposition), then he wins easily when taking that plus third party votes into account based on your map.

Again, however, the key is to win over voters who are undecided on Trump or even who marginally approve of him, while holding almost everyone who disapproves of him. You can't limit yourself just to those who dislike him and tack on a few token undecided voters and expect to get anything beyond a Hillary coalition.

Correction, they were favorability numbers, not disapprovals.

[Dr. Arch]

Quinnipiac Poll of Florida is coming out later today.

The GOLD standard.

But seriously, I'm glad that they we have another pollster polling this state other than the same pollsters.

Numbers are out: 42-54

Ouch

[Dr. Arch]

Welcome to super ignore.

[Dr. Arch]

I didn’t see this flawless, beautiful poll posted here:



Women: 29/70 (-41)
18-35 years: 27/73 (-46)
65+ years: 36/62 (-26)

Shaheen has a 57/34 approval in the same poll (69/28 among females, 66/26 among 18 to 34-year-olds and 63/35 among voters 65 or older), and Democrats lead the Generic Congressional Ballot in NH by 12 points.

Ho-ly crap

[Dr. Arch]

Interesting tidbit on the CNN poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And there's the wave.

[Dr. Arch]

New York City -  Quinnipiac:

19% Approve
76% Disapprove

Bronx: 16-82
Brooklyn: 24-70
Manhattan: 12-87
Queens: 18-75
Staten Island: 34-62!!!

Source

Holy moly

[Dr. Arch]

Trump approval at 30% in PA.

Link: https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/708725106986767486-f-m-poll-release-march-2018.pdf

[Dr. Arch]

PPP finds Trump at 46/47 in South Carolina CD 1, which he won 54-40 (and Romney won 58-40).

https://www.postandcourier.com/cunningham-st-district-poll/pdf_60d4f8e6-3431-11e8-8249-6361aacaeb48.html

Bad signs for him abound.

[Dr. Arch]

Rasmussen 4/4

Approve - 51 (+2)
Disapprove - 48 (-2)

I think there's an actual argument for taking Rasmussen out of the aggregators. They're aggressively tweeting at Trump, trying to get him to retweet their polls. That seems very fishy.

Yep, and we know from yesterday's results that he's NOWHERE near 50% approval.

[Dr. Arch]

↑ Nearly 50% Strongly Disapprove is huge.

[Dr. Arch]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 1-5, 1761 adults

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Oops

[Dr. Arch]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 1-5, 1761 adults

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Oops

Oopsos

Lol that was great

[Dr. Arch]

To be blunt, I get tired of watching his approval ratings go up slightly in one direction or the other and the massive amount of hot takes that follow.

[Dr. Arch]

Hispanic disapproval is almost equal to black disapproval? What a feat.

If they start voting like that any time soon, the GOP is in for a world of hurt.

Could explain the huge shifts in the southwest.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump Indiana approval: 47%-48%


Source

Ouch

[Dr. Arch]

It was nice while it lasted.

I don't want Trump to be popular. I'm sorry that I try to post every poll possible. I guess I should only post pro-Dem polls so I don't get accused of trolling every 3 minutes.

You put yourself in that position. Don't even try to victimize yourself.

[Dr. Arch]

Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

Just got recent Poll - much higher than President O at same time....Well, much more has been accomplished!

lmao

[Dr. Arch]

In the Morning Consult Poll,

Gen Z

Approve: 19%
Disapprove: 75%

#ConservativeGenZ

[Dr. Arch]

POLITICO reports that Trump's rise in recent days has not just come from North Korea but also because of Kanye West's comments in favour of Trump and questioning the "slavish mindset" of Blacks ...

Support for Trump among Black men doubled after Kanye's comments and among Blacks in total it's also up significantly in the Reuters poll:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/04/trump-kanye-african-american-poll-numbers-569166

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/donald-trump-thanks-kanye-west-for-boost-in-approval-rating-w519854

April 1 is long gone.

[Dr. Arch]

The silence is deafening now that narratives have been wrecked.

The silence is because nobody takes you seriously. Catch a drift for once.

[Dr. Arch]

Before anyone shouts COLLAPSE let me just say I think it’s more of a slight decline from a plateau

COLLASPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

lool

[Dr. Arch]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 24-30, 13531 adults including 11682 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

That's with even party id?

Yes.  Among all adults party ID is 29R, 29D, 38 I/neither.  When the last group is pushed, they leaned 23R, 22D, 47 neither.

Among RV, it's 31R, 31D, 35 I/neither.  The last group leans 28R, 26D, 43 neither when pushed.

Uhh, don't Democrats have a registration age?

[Dr. Arch]

ND and SD are such small states,  it's like HI,  not worth it.

Every state is worth it.

[Dr. Arch]

↑ Strongly unfavorable alone >50% is extremely bad news for Trump.