absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Dr. Arch]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

IIRC someone mentioned today is the last day, and for some counties, tomorrow.

Assuming it's the larger D counties.

Yea he said most of them are D-favorable counties.

Awesome. A bit more time to get out those unlikely voters.

[Dr. Arch]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

Most of the state finished today. These are the counties with EV tomorrow:

Bay (GOP)
Bradford (GOP)
Broward (Dem)
Charlotte (GOP)
Duval (lean GOP)
Hillsborough (swing, tilt Dem)
Leon (Dem)
Miami-Dade (Dem)
Orange (Dem)
Osceola (Dem)
Palm Beach (Dem)
Pinellas (swing, tilt Dem)
Polk (lean GOP)
Seminole (lean GOP)
Suwannee (GOP)

Based on the counties that are voting tomorrow, Dems will expand their slim lead substantially

Great news.

[Dr. Arch]

The only thing to be cautious about is that some SW GOP counties (Collier, Lee) have really high turnout so far (50-60%+), whereas Democratic counties (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange) are all in the 40-50% range. Could be that reliable Republican votes in those SW counties are taking full advantage of the new VBM system and are cannibalizing their election day vote, in which case Clinton has a lot more room to grow come election day. Or maybe they're not.

Note that polls have found that Ds have turned out a much higher number of unlikely voters.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Last day for early voting in North Carolina;
Dem early vote same as 2012
Rep early vote UP 14 %
Unaffiliated UP 43 %
Black vote DOWN 8 % from 2012 ( 59,000 votes )
White vote UP 19 %
Hispanics vote too low to make a difference.
NC is done. All Trump territory.

Nope.

Let me remind you the GOP won in 2012.
Now add more Republicans and whites, take out some  blacks.
Add some independents, who Trump won in every poll.
She might have a 10% chance here at most.

"If I analyze this state like Alabama, Trump wins!"

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Last day for early voting in North Carolina;
Dem early vote same as 2012
Rep early vote UP 14 %
Unaffiliated UP 43 %
Black vote DOWN 8 % from 2012 ( 59,000 votes )
White vote UP 19 %
Hispanics vote too low to make a difference.
NC is done. All Trump territory.

Nope.

Let me remind you the GOP won in 2012.
Now add more Republicans and whites, take out some  blacks.
Add some independents, who Trump won in every poll.
She might have a 10% chance here at most.

"If I analyze this state like Alabama, Trump wins!"

Are the numerically illiterate allowed to post on this board? Show me how the numbers work in her favor. Oh wait, you cant.

You poor fool. Look, the White vote has surged in NC, but a large chunk of HRC's coalition this year is the educated White vote, which NC has a very decent chunk of, especially in the critical triangle area. A surge in the White vote could mean anything depending on the break down.

But here's a really damning number for you. The Unaff voters are overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young, all part of HRCs coalition, and that has surged way beyond the R number could ever hope to equal if demographic projections come through. Of course, you just like covering your eyes and seeing it how you want, and then lob personal insults at other people. That just reveals how incapable of understanding this you are and the lack of confidence in your #analysis.

[Dr. Arch]

You poor fool. Look, the White vote has surged in NC, but a large chunk of HRC's coalition this year is the educated White vote, which NC has a very decent chunk of, especially in the critical triangle area. A surge in the White vote could mean anything depending on the break down.

But here's a really damning number for you. The Unaff voters are overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young, all part of HRCs coalition, and that has surged way beyond the R number could ever hope to equal if demographic projections come through. Of course, you just like covering your eyes and seeing it how you want, and then lob personal insults at other people. That just reveals how incapable of understanding this you are and the lack of confidence in your #analysis.

Can you give a concrete numbers compared to 2012 that show that? The diff among UFA is not THAT big IIRC.

Purple line

[Dr. Arch]

One thing that concerns me somewhat is this. We have been talking about latinos voting like crazy against Trump and how this will lead to victories in Nevada and Colorado (at least). But why then have we had several polls indicating the most latinamerican of all states - New Mexico - being surprisingly close. Most of us had thought that New Mexico wasn't even close to being a swing state anymore.

It isn't. NM is a special case in closeness due to Johnson still having a good chunk of the vote, but those will break for HRC in the end. In any case, Trump has never led there either.

[Dr. Arch]

Purple line

I mean your claim, that it became "overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young".

Would be a nice to compare it to 2012.

I don't think there are comparisons to 2012 available. At least, I can't find them, but I can tell you about this year, as I have.

[Dr. Arch]

hm?

why are dems up about 170k votes now? did i miss something?

Yesterday

[Dr. Arch]

schale just corrected the FL number...would have been strange otherwise.

dems lead pubs by about 25k.

Remember that there's still today and tomorrow left in early voting for the big D counties, which will shore up the margin more.

[Dr. Arch]

Purple line

I mean your claim, that it became "overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young".

Would be a nice to compare it to 2012.

I don't think there are comparisons to 2012 available. At least, I can't find them, but I can tell you about this year, as I have.

They should be. NC state http://www.ncsbe.gov/ has statistic over 2016 and 2012 (and later). But I think Dems @twitter don't want to compare, since it doesn't differ much, 16' vs 12'

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

[Dr. Arch]

schale just corrected the FL number...would have been strange otherwise.

dems lead pubs by about 25k.

Remember that there's still today and tomorrow left in early voting for the big D counties, which will shore up the margin more.

I'm pretty sure all of early voting ends today in FL.

Fixed Still, another day is nice.

[Dr. Arch]

As of 11:00 AM, 13,149 voters in Broward County have voted. We could be headed for a massive Sunday there

Bruh

[Dr. Arch]

BTW, I don't get why everyone is so excited about racial breakdown in FL and NC.

Even right now the electorate is about the same as 2012 total in FL and NC. But we know (if polls are right) that Trump will be doing much better on the Election Day, which sort of implies that ED electorate will be much whiter& probably males. So the total electorate will be also slightly whiter, but probably more female that 2012.

Or?

That's not how it works. Also, the final Hispanic share of the electorate will absolutely be larger this year.

[Dr. Arch]

High turnout doesn't necessarily mean it's all good for Hillary/Dems.

An analysis of the Austrian Presidential election found that VdB (leftist candidate) did very well in high turnout districts, but also Hofer (the far-right candidate): In fact, there were some districts with 80%+ turnout which voted with 60%+ for VdB, but also 80%+ turnout districts which voted with 60%+ for Hofer ...

Also remember that Trump did rather well in the high turnout primaries.

Austria =! U.S.

[Dr. Arch]

High turnout doesn't necessarily mean it's all good for Hillary/Dems.

An analysis of the Austrian Presidential election found that VdB (leftist candidate) did very well in high turnout districts, but also Hofer (the far-right candidate): In fact, there were some districts with 80%+ turnout which voted with 60%+ for VdB, but also 80%+ turnout districts which voted with 60%+ for Hofer ...

Also remember that Trump did rather well in the high turnout primaries.

Austria =! U.S.

Obviously. Yes.

But it could mirror the Austrian Presidential election this time, just on a 40x bigger scale.

Also the candidates are roughly comparable (VdB more so with Hillary, just without her email scandal and secrecy issues and Hofer being way more likeable than asshole Trump).

This post shows a serious lack of understanding of different political landscapes.

[Dr. Arch]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15m15 minutes ago
FL and LA similar to GA, btw, so something went very wrong in NC

Voter suppression.

[Dr. Arch]

Why would that mean she's screwed? Intra-party switches are all voters that were already voting another way anyway and IND going up looks to be good given the demos of registered INDS.

This. The fact that she's matching the EV leads +/- even with many Dixie switches is just that much more dangerous for Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.

Any news on Iowa? EV was looking decent, not as good as O and likely headed for a close call........last i heard 42k Dem lead, which comparing to 2012 would be a razor thin election night result.

LAtest poll has Trump by 7....?

I have a feeling Iowa will be decided by a razor thin result (<0.5).

[Dr. Arch]

The massive amount of updates in this thread are great, but a little hard to keep up with.  Is this a fair summary of where the key states stand?

AZ - Looks good for Trump.
FL - Looks good for Clinton due to increased Hispanic and unaffiliated turnout.
IA - Looks good for Trump due to Dem underperformance from previous years.
NV - Probably in the bag for Clinton.
NC - Unclear.  Some indications look good for Clinton, some for Trump.
OH - Unclear.  Looked good for Trump early, but Dems have made up a lot of ground.
WI - Looks solid for Clinton.

I'd say you nailed it perfectly; what say the others?

Yep, about right. I'd modify NC to say more of the unknown indications look good for Clinton than for Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

The Fort Lauderdale PD and Broward Sheriff's Department had to close a part of Sistrunk Avenue because of the massive turnout for Souls to the Polls (this is a good thing)!

https://twitter.com/browardpolitics/status/795340372687941636

Amazing news!

[Dr. Arch]

Schale crunches the numbers on ethnicity in Saturday's FL voters:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Looks like Whites will be pushed below 65%. Today should reach 13% in the AA share and over 15% in the Hispanic share.

[Dr. Arch]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
Something went very wrong for African-Americans' voting in North Carolina

Suppression efforts, but they will compensate on ED.

[Dr. Arch]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

FL is really moving hard at the end. That Obama-Clinton Machine.

Awesome!

[Dr. Arch]

@Saahil_Desai

4,000 people are waiting in line to vote in Cincinnati right now. This is how long the line is.

OH is coming back!