Primary bellwether states

[sportydude]

Michigan is the anti-bellwether state no. 1.
Seen from this angle, it isn't even surprising that Bernie won Michigan. That voting pattern was actually very consistent in fact.

[sportydude]

Michigan is the anti-bellwether state no. 1.
Seen from this angle, it isn't even surprising that Bernie won Michigan. That voting pattern was actually very consistent in fact.

It does have a contrarian history for both parties. 2008 perhaps deserves an asterisk since Obama wasn't on the ballot, but it also voted for Jackson in 1988.

They voted for Wallace in 1972, for Jackson in 1988 and now for Sanders. Okay ...
Either the Michigan Democrats despise their national party (like the Oklahomans do) or they just love trolling around. (Aren't Michiganians even called trolls?)

[sportydude]

So, if I'm not mistaken, the only Democratic primary bellwethers (going back to '88) are Wisconsin, North Dakota, Montana, Oregon and Hawaii, each of which is likely to vote for Bernie. lol.

If they really do, the remaining bellwether states would be Illinois, Missouri, Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

[sportydude]

Goodbye, Hawaii, goodbye! 👋

[sportydude]

And we have another traitor: Wisconsin...  😫

[sportydude]

Bernie seems to have disturbed the whole bellwether system.
There was a sliiiight chance of Hillary winning Oregon, but since she blew it, there aren't any 1988 bellwether states left anymore. (Montana and North Dakota are unconquerable Bernie territory, of course.)
The most "senior" primary bellwether states began their streak back in 1992:

[sportydude]

On the Republican side, Kasich and Rafael switched off Ohio and Wisconsin:

[sportydude]

And the super bellwether state is: ILLINOIS
It's the only state that belongs to the most "senior" primary bellwether states on both sides.

[sportydude]

Is Oklahoma the most anti-bellwether state for both parties?

Going back to 1992, there are five states sharing the prize as the super anti-bellwether state for either party's primaries: Alaska, Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Oklahoma. Each of them were five times off the mark.

Several states were four times off the mark:
Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont

Thrice:
Idaho, Louisiana, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Wyoming