Predict the Obama Presidency

[Frodo]

President Obama will be unable to focus on his own initiatives, as his first term will be spent cleaning up the financial mess left by this financial crisis and the Bush administration.  I would like to see a reform of our tax code to spur savings over consumption, but I am not going to hold my breath.

For the sake of stability and continuity, he will keep Robert Gates as his Defense Secretary, with General Odierno in command in Iraq, and General Petraeus in charge of Central Command.  When push comes to shove, he will listen to his generals, and will be very flexible on removing troops from Iraq while still trying to remain true to his timetable, at least rhetorically.  In practice, he will only be removing troops from Iraq based on conditions on the ground which will probably ultimately be well within the 16-month timetable he laid out, anyway.  

If he does a good-enough job in his first term, and accordingly wins re-election in 2012, he may be able to focus on doing what he originally campaigned on doing in his second term -namely, reforming health care and achieving energy independence.