A new "Solid South" ?

[Frodo]

so, how do the growing metropolises like the Raleigh-Durham triangle in north-central North Carolina, the Washington metropolitan area in northern Virginia which has been trending more Democratic as the suburbs have aged, and elsewhere throughout the South (especially the upper South) fit into all this talk about the new Republican 'Solid South'?  much of the Republican gains have occurred as a direct result if the growth of the suburbs -yet, Democrats have been gaining back lost ground as these suburbs mature, as has happened in northern Virginia -Fairfax County has voted for its first Democrat in decades.  Arlington and Alexandria were once swing counties (the last time it went Republican nationally, Arlington voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980), and yet they have become solidly Democratic.  who is to say this same process that has given Republicans such control throughout Dixie, won't be their undoing as the suburbs mature and become more urbanized with time?     

[Frodo]

We will know the South will have become truly solidly Republican when the GOP takes control of the Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama legislatures -until then, I will continue to view the region as merely Republican-leaning, but still competitive for Democrats if the right candidate is nominated. 

[Frodo]

a - The Democrats will start winning 3-4 southern states in presidential elections in the future, or

b - the party will not survive.

(migration)

The Democrats carried the Solid South for a century and lost 15 of 25 Pres elections. It is certainly possible for a party, like the GOP during this period, to lose the entire South and still be a viable majority party.

Perhaps, but with most population growth occuring in the South (along with more electoral votes and congressional seats), Democrats (at least at the national level) can look forward to being a semi-permanent minority party over the long-term if they forsake the South.  Given the water situation in the west, there is a ceiling at which electoral votes cannot go beyond a certain level in that region of the country especially in those states like Colorado, Nevada, and Arizona.  Democrats can make gains in the Southwest, but with water becoming an increasingly scarce commodity in that region, those gains will necessarilly be limited.