Could a Republican make Vermont and/or the Black Belt competitive?

[Frodo]

Republicans will eventually appeal to black voters (particularly rural black voters) based upon a shared cultural conservatism when racial appeals no longer avail them as their white base in the state gradually shrinks.  And logically, Mississippi will be the first state in which that will happen which I think should be later this decade as the baby boomers exit the stage...  

[Frodo]

Republicans will eventually appeal to black voters (particularly rural black voters) based upon a shared cultural conservatism when racial appeals will no longer avail them as their white base in the state gradually shrinks.  And logically, Mississippi will be the first state in which that will happen which I think should be later this decade as the baby boomers exit the stage...  

The GOP would also have to shift its economic message for that, though. African-Americans started voting for the Democrats BECAUSE OF the New Deal.

That is certainly within the realm of possibility.  They just have to become a (genuinely) more Trumpist party at least in Mississippi, loosening election rules (that were designed to lower black turnout) in the process, following Kentucky's lead.  If they can do that, I can see them ruling the state for at least as long as Democrats did after the end of Reconstruction.  And you can extrapolate what could happen in other states of the former Confederacy...  

[Frodo]

Republicans will eventually appeal to black voters (particularly rural black voters) based upon a shared cultural conservatism when racial appeals no longer avail them as their white base in the state gradually shrinks.  And logically, Mississippi will be the first state in which that will happen which I think should be later this decade as the baby boomers exit the stage...  

This is a common myth on this site, but it's not at all true. MS is actually becoming whiter relative to the country as time goes on.

What the TFR numbers actually look like:

Image Link

From that chart, white TFR exceeds non-white TFR in ID, IN, KS, KY, NH, NJ, NY, UT, WV, & VT.
tied in MI, MS, MT & VA.

ID, IN, KS, KY, UT & WV are all safe R, so this has no real impact. NH and VT are so white that this shouldn't result in any shifts. But in NY and NJ this gap (which is probably growing) could result in a GOP trend over the coming decades (which is seemingly already happening for other reasons).

I meant that in the sense that (white) baby boomers are the most reliable generation of Republicans in Mississippi, given they are the most conservative.  Future generations of whites in the state don't seem like they will be as in lockstep with the Mississippi GOP, therefore being less reliable voters compared to their elders.  Which is why I am suggesting it would wise for Mississippi Republicans later this decade to reach out to rural blacks in the Delta to make up the difference as the baby boomers pass on.