2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[Frodo]

Thanks to China's crackdown on Hong Kong, not even the Kuomintang wants to be regarded as too overly cozy with the mainland Communist regime:

China Confronts a New Political Reality in Taiwan: No Friends

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I can hardly blame them:

Hong Kongers in Taiwan firmly support the ruling party after watching China erode freedoms at home

As Taiwan’s presidential election approaches, many immigrants from Hong Kong, witnesses to the alarming erosion of civil liberties at home, are supporting the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

Beijing’s crackdown on dissent in the financial hub has cemented their preference for a party committed to preserving Taiwan’s de facto independence and democratic values ahead of the Jan. 13 vote.

While Taiwanese immigration policies have been less welcoming than some from Hong Kong anticipated, most remain steadfast in their support for the DPP, largely due to the party’s firm stance on autonomy from Beijing, according to interviews with 10 Hong Kongers, over half of whom moved to Taiwan after the 2019 anti-government protests.

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It's official:

Taiwan elects Lai Ching-te as president, sending a defiant message of democracy to China

Taiwan's Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate from the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party, won a landslide victory on Saturday as the island of 23 million sent a powerful message to China in a high-stakes election with global consequences.

(...) With the full count completed just hours after polls closed, Lai won 40.1% of the vote, while his main opponent, Hou You-ih of the traditionally Beijing-friendly Kuomintang party, had 33.5%. Third-party candidate Ko Wen-je of the upstart Taiwan People's Party surged to a strong showing of 26.5%.

Lai's victory marked the first time in Taiwan's brief democratic history that an incumbent party won a third consecutive term in office. The 64-year-old former doctor currently serves as vice president under outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, and vowed to maintain the strong stance she has taken against Beijing.

Lai said Saturday he would pursue exchanges and cooperation with China, but only "under the principles of dignity and parity."

 

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What now for the KMT? It seems totally unable to gain back the Presidency, there is a significant attack on their Blue base by the TPP and a significant part of their base is literaly dying of old age.

Democrats felt the same way after their 1988 loss.  The KMT will come up with their own Bill Clinton eventually (hopefully without the personal scandals).  They have to.  

[Frodo]

Very likely the KMT candidate for Prez in 2028 will be current Taichung mayor Lu.  If she loses to Lai then in 2032 the KMT will run Taipei mayor Chiang who at that stage will almost be a shoo-in to win after 16 years of DPP in power.  If that takes place then after 44 years the Chiang clan will be back in charge of ROC.

Lu running in 2028 and Chiang running in 2032 will mean the KMT avoid an issue that dogged them in 2016 2020 and now in 2024.  Namely, their candidate in all 3 elections was sitting mayors (New Taipei's Chu in 2016, Kaohsiung Han in 2020, and New Taipei's Hou in 2024) who had just been elected a year earlier which opened them up to DPP attacks that they are abandoning their mandate.  It was especially bad in 2020 because Han was just elected for his first term.

For those in the dark, he is referring to 45-year old Chiang Wan-an, the great grandson of Chiang Kai-shek and elected mayor of Taipei in 2022.  Mayors of that city (like Virginia governors) can only serve one consecutive term.