Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Frodo]

DeSantis needs to run in 2024.

This is the time to do it, if he’s ever going to.

I am sure he is going to regardless of what Trump wants -he doesn't want to end up like then-NJ Gov. Chris Christie who passed up on 2012, and never really got another chance after that. 

[Frodo]

ABC reports the abortionist is under-performing Trump throughout all of Georgia.

Lord, let it be and let's give the good Reverend six more years...

This is the last good chance Republicans have for unseating Senator Warnock, because if he wins re-election this year, it will be exponentially harder for them the next time he is up before voters, given the direction Georgia is heading. 

[Frodo]

CNN calls VA-02 as a flip, VA-07 as a hold.

Yep.  With 211 out of 226 precincts reporting for VA -7...

Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D): 51%
Yesli Vega (R): 48.8%

I am one very relieved Democrat. 

[Frodo]

Imagine how smug IndyRep and Woodbury and the rest would have been if they had actually won.

Instead they've disappeared, hopefully forever this time.

I think the colors of the avatars still remaining in this thread speaks volumes about how the night is going...

Sir Woodbury is still not going to take a year off from this forum no matter how much you may wish it. 

[Frodo]

the GOP will control the house of representatives. lets be real.

Congratulations to our blue avatars

With a margin I can probably count on one hand, given the way this night is shaping up... 

[Frodo]

DEMOCRATS UP TO 209 SEATS ON THE NEEDLE

Is a 218 to 217 House (for either party) in the cards?  Let's make it so!  

[Frodo]

Donald Trump is a tumor on the Republican Party. He used the party when it was convenient for him to fulfill his stupid dream of becoming president and proceeded to drive our country off a cliff, which cost the party the House, Senate, and Presidency all in 4 years. And it could very well stop the party from retaking the House and Senate this year, even when he's not in office because he's still been peddling the stupid election lie. I hope this election is a wakeup call for Republicans to finally cut him off.

You're (collectively) still going to nominate him again in 2024.  I'm sorry to say it.  Though he will likely be savaged during the primaries by Gov. Ron DeSantis more badly than he was by Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016. 

[Frodo]

BEAUTIFUL!

https://twitter.com/danielbice/status/1590193580316196866?s=46&t=vQUn1Uk50QL...

That's good, but it will all be to naught if Republicans win veto-proof majorities in the legislature. 

[Frodo]

this is amazing for us dems. reps are really going to have to do some soul searching

Perhaps (we can hope...) they will conclude that going all-in on the 2020 election conspiracy track wasn't such a good idea in retrospect...  

[Frodo]

I thought inflation and the economy was going to dominate this election, even over abortion.  How did you Republicans screw things up so badly?  

[Frodo]

McCarthy has to be shaking in his boots right now. I don't see how he becomes speaker if the House is this close.

It would be interesting to see if somehow moderate Ds and Rs could strike a deal to elect someone pretty “nonpartisan” as a speaker.

SPEAKER MARY PELTOLA.

Half joking

So like the New York Senate between 2012 and 2018?  Not ideal, but better than what could have been had House Republicans actually been half as competent at winning seats as they were in 2010 and 2014.  

[Frodo]

House Math




This is a “best case R” map made by fellow user scutosaurus, which I generally agree with. Democrats need to win 5 of the light red seats here for a majority. CO-03 is gone, so discount that.

I feel fairly good about Dems winning 2-3 of the light red CA seats. That leaves four competitive races in WA, OR, and AZ to decide things.


I don’t necessarily think Dems are favored but it’s absolutely doable.

That Republican win of TX-15 looks like a dagger thrust into the heart of what remains of Democratic south Texas.  

[Frodo]

House projection numbers by NBC News has just shrunk the GOP majority margin to less than a handful of seats:

Republicans: 220
Democrats: 215

[Frodo]

House projection numbers by NBC News has just shrunk the GOP majority margin to less than a handful of seats:

Republicans: 220
Democrats: 215

If we're talking about a GOP majority of 218-220 seats, I am not sure why McCarthy would even want to be Speaker. I mean, I know it's been his lifelong dream and all but talk about drinking from a poisoned chalice. He runs the risk of having his agenda obstructed by only one or two members of the Freedom caucus and look how people like Gaetz and Good have already begun lambasting him since the election. It's clear they don't fear him one bit.

I think this is an opportunity for him to truly put the Trump era behind us by putting aside the Hastert Rule, and start off by trying to become speaker with both Republican and Democratic support, setting a bipartisan tone.  By so doing, he can isolate the MAGA crazies in their own insane asylum while the rest of the chamber (the adults in the room, so to speak) gets to work on the people's business.  

[Frodo]

House projection numbers by NBC News has just shrunk the GOP majority margin to less than a handful of seats:

Republicans: 220
Democrats: 215

If we're talking about a GOP majority of 218-220 seats, I am not sure why McCarthy would even want to be Speaker. I mean, I know it's been his lifelong dream and all but talk about drinking from a poisoned chalice. He runs the risk of having his agenda obstructed by only one or two members of the Freedom caucus and look how people like Gaetz and Good have already begun lambasting him since the election. It's clear they don't fear him one bit.

I think this is an opportunity for him to truly put the Trump era behind us by putting aside the Hastert Rule, and start off by trying to become speaker with both Republican and Democratic support, setting a bipartisan tone.  By so doing, he can isolate the MAGA crazies in their own insane asylum while the rest of the chamber (the adults in the room, so to speak) gets to work on the people's business.  

We are talking about Kevin McCarthy. I don't know what you're talking about.

Redemption.  

[Frodo]

In case anyone was wondering, Mary Peltola is doing better in the first round results this time in some of the State House districts than she did in the FINAL ROUND in the special, largely concentrated around Fairbanks and the Bush seats. Case in point is that she got 80% of the final round in her native Bethel seat. She’s currently sitting at a dictator-level 84% there. She’s on track to win by double digits after RCV it looks like:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/alaska/us-house-district-1

Oof, looks like Peltola will probably end up winning 28 out of the 40 State House districts. Alaska Goddess Empress Peltola.

Barring a red tsunami, I think she has this seat for life.

That would be an amazing turnaround for Alaska considering the late Don Young held this seat for nearly fifty years.  

[Frodo]

With Democrats retaining the chamber a receding dream, a GOP house majority of one would be hilarious:

Republicans: 218
Democrats: 217

Realistically speaking, can we get there?  

[Frodo]

Can Minnesota Democrats do a mid-decade redraw of the Congressional and/or legislative maps?

I think the Minnesota constitution prohibits such a practice, at least by implication:

ARTICLE IV
LEGISLATIVE DEPARTMENT

Sec. 3.  Census enumeration apportionment; congressional and legislative district boundaries; senate districts.  At its first session after each enumeration of the inhabitants of this state made by the authority of the United States, the legislature shall have the power to prescribe the bounds of congressional and legislative districts. Senators shall be chosen by single districts of convenient contiguous territory. No representative district shall be divided in the formation of a senate district. The senate districts shall be numbered in a regular series.

So the Minnesota legislature must in the first session after the completion of the decennial US Census redraw congressional and legislative districts.  No later.  

[Frodo]

House projection numbers by NBC News has just shrunk the GOP majority margin to less than a handful of seats:

Republicans: 220
Democrats: 215

If we're talking about a GOP majority of 218-220 seats, I am not sure why McCarthy would even want to be Speaker. I mean, I know it's been his lifelong dream and all but talk about drinking from a poisoned chalice. He runs the risk of having his agenda obstructed by only one or two members of the Freedom caucus and look how people like Gaetz and Good have already begun lambasting him since the election. It's clear they don't fear him one bit.

I think this is an opportunity for him to truly put the Trump era behind us by putting aside the Hastert Rule, and start off by trying to become speaker with both Republican and Democratic support, setting a bipartisan tone.  By so doing, he can isolate the MAGA crazies in their own insane asylum while the rest of the chamber (the adults in the room, so to speak) gets to work on the people's business.  

We are talking about Kevin McCarthy. I don't know what you're talking about.

Redemption.  

Kevin McCarthy.

The thing is, whether it is Kevin McCarthy or whoever the Republicans nominate, that person is going to need a bipartisan majority for stable leadership if the House is going to be as narrowly split as I think it is. Otherwise with the current system, everyone will be on pins and needles with every special election as a result of someone's inevitable retirement or death that comes their way potentially determining who controls the House.  A relatively evenly split House is going to require split leadership with both parties having leadership roles in who governs the chamber.  

[Frodo]

House projection numbers by NBC News has just shrunk the GOP majority margin to less than a handful of seats:

Republicans: 220
Democrats: 215

If we're talking about a GOP majority of 218-220 seats, I am not sure why McCarthy would even want to be Speaker. I mean, I know it's been his lifelong dream and all but talk about drinking from a poisoned chalice. He runs the risk of having his agenda obstructed by only one or two members of the Freedom caucus and look how people like Gaetz and Good have already begun lambasting him since the election. It's clear they don't fear him one bit.

I think this is an opportunity for him to truly put the Trump era behind us by putting aside the Hastert Rule, and start off by trying to become speaker with both Republican and Democratic support, setting a bipartisan tone.  By so doing, he can isolate the MAGA crazies in their own insane asylum while the rest of the chamber (the adults in the room, so to speak) gets to work on the people's business.  

We are talking about Kevin McCarthy. I don't know what you're talking about.

Redemption.  

Kevin McCarthy.

The thing is, whether it is Kevin McCarthy or whoever the Republicans nominate, that person is going to need a bipartisan majority for stable leadership if the House is going to be as narrowly split as I think it is. Otherwise with the current system, everyone will be on pins and needles with every special election as a result of someone's inevitable retirement or death that comes their way potentially determining who controls the House.  A relatively evenly split House is going to require split leadership with both parties having leadership roles in who governs the chamber.  

Sure. I still don't understand what this has to do with McCarthy.

Of all the possible candidates the House GOP have for the Speakership, Kevin McCarthy would seem the most likely to do this, in spite of everything.  He may be craven at times, but he isn't MAGA.  He can accomplish his lifetime dream of becoming Speaker of the House of Representatives while at the same time sunsetting the Trump era by basing his support on a broad, bipartisan basis which, I am arguing, he will probably have to do as a matter of necessity rather than by choice anyway if he wants to remain Speaker for more than a few months until the next special election comes his way.  I think that is a legacy he would want to leave behind. 

[Frodo]

Alaska has at least 38k votes remaining and usually late arriving AK ballots are D leaning. Murkowski might overtake the lead on that alone, and Peltola could get pushed to around 49%.

https://twitter.com/kitchenman/status/1591284458497671173?s=20&t=0ETc9wOEt-c...

So Peltola is likely going to have a runoff like the Senate race then.  It is now a matter of deciding which of her two main challengers will face her.  Currently, Sarah Palin is in second place.  

[Frodo]

Will either be 219-216, or 218-217 for the Rs. In all reality an all time bag fumble for the GOP.

The next two years are going to be fun!  

We should probably create a special elections megathread, and have it stickied...  

[Frodo]

When does Clark NV drop?

When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east.

Oh, so Venusians were voting in Nevada too?

Most likely, yes.  

[Frodo]

When does Clark NV drop?

When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east.

Oh, so Venusians were voting in Nevada too?

It's a reference to a prophecy from a Song of Ice and Fire, the greatest fiction book series ever released.

You know, I'm starting to picture Clark County as the South Park parody of R.R. Martin with how long it's taking them to report new results.

We might get the Winds of Winter before the next Clark drop. Both have taken ridiculously long.

Oh, I am sure George R. R. Martin will get the 'Winds of Winter' done before then...  

My greatest concern is whether he gets 'A Dream of Spring' -the last book of the Song of Ice and Fire series- out to the publisher before he kicks the bucket.  It would be nothing short of a miracle if he can manage it.  

[Frodo]

CNN calls the Senate for Dems. Amazing.

This is Republican turnout in the Georgia runoff upon hearing the news: