Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Frodo]

I am going to wait for further visual confirmation before celebrating, but there's increasing chatter on both sides that Ukraine broke through Russian lines on the Kherson front.


https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1576611237479288833
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576602192990961664
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1576603172595900416

On that note:

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1576630576085274624?s=20&t=O0AxJ-...

Please let it be true.  If so, that's 20,000 to 25,000 Russian elite soldiers on the verge of being either killed or captured, and permanently taken off the battlefield.  Those are losses Putin simply cannot afford.   

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/MisterA1980/status/1576341541127213057?t=fYtbGP98hkCfKGzHyYk...

Where was the 58th brigade? 

[Frodo]

Defending Svatove is not going to be fun nor easy for the Russians:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1577126986043912192?s=20&t=Zpxhnun-7hk0...
Look at this google maps view taken in August 2021 from one of the bluffs:

So it is like Chattanooga then:

[Frodo]

Thanks Putin!

Ukraine's New Offensive Is Fueled by Captured Russian Weapons

Ukraine’s rapid breakthrough in the Kharkiv region a month ago ended up putting hundreds of pieces of Russian armor into Kyiv’s hands, military officials say, as the Russian army left behind its heavy weapons and warehouses of supplies in a disorganized retreat.

Some Russian pieces of equipment were ready for immediate use, while others are being repaired to return to the front. Tanks, vehicles and guns too damaged to salvage are being cannibalized for spare parts. Crucially, Russia has also left behind large quantities of Soviet-standard artillery shells that had nearly run out in Ukraine.

This haul is helping power Ukrainian forces as they retake parts of the eastern Donetsk region, including the town of Lyman, and push further east into nearby Luhansk. Kyiv has regained more than 4,000 square miles of land in the east over the past month, in addition to advances in the south.

One Ukrainian battalion, the Carpathian Sich, seized 10 modern T-80 tanks and five 2S5 Giatsint 152-mm self-propelled howitzers after it entered the town of Izyum last month, said its deputy chief of staff, Ruslan Andriyko.

“We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1578772733944631299?s=46&t=Hz0k9V...

Putin must have gotten word of a coup attempt by the Russian military against him....  

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1578767684556111873

[Frodo]

We really should consider supporting an insurrection against Lukashenko's regime, clearing the way for a democratic Belarus to join a post-war Ukraine in its bid to join the EU and NATO:

Belarus opposition leader says her people 'are ready to fight for our country'

With Belarussians gaining valuable combat experience fighting on behalf of Ukraine against the Russian invaders, they already have the genesis of an army of liberation:

‘LUKASHENKO IS EASIER TO UNSEAT THAN PUTIN’
A band of Belarusians is resisting the threat of a neo-Soviet empire by taking up arms in Ukraine.

[Frodo]

BAE, U.S. in Talks to Restart M777 Howitzer Production After Ukraine Success

There is a serious snag, though:

(...) But as the U.S. and its allies supply Ukraine they are depleting their own inventories. The war has, for instance, run down U.S. stocks of ammunition used in howitzers, and the Pentagon has been slow to replenish its arsenal.

Dormant supply lines often can’t be switched on overnight, and surging production of active lines can take time.

BAE estimates that it would take some 30 to 36 months to restart full production of the M777, not least because the company needs a new supplier of titanium material and suppliers to produce the weapon’s lightweight components.

This timeline obviously isn't going to work.  The war in Ukraine will probably be over by then.  Although it could still serve a useful purpose in equipping the Ukrainian armed forces in the latest NATO weaponry to deter any future Russian invasions until Ukraine officially joins NATO. 

[Frodo]

To complement my earlier post:

More than half of Ukraine’s tank fleet now reportedly consists of captured Russian armor

This war, as terrible as it has been for Ukrainian citizens, has actually proved a boon for Ukraine's military thanks in no small part to Western support, but also Russia's own incompetence. It has grown larger and stronger as the Russian army has proven itself weaker and less effective.  

[Frodo]

Putin's war in Ukraine is taking a serious toll on Russia's ability to control its old imperial possessions in the Caucasus and Central Asia, never mind its ambitions further afield:

https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1579129587442733061

[Frodo]

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-blames-us-almost-forcing-putin-invade-ukraine-1750145

"Trump Blames U.S. for 'Almost Forcing' Putin to Invade Ukraine"

I thank God everyday that Biden is President -and NOT Trump. 

[Frodo]

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-blames-us-almost-forcing-putin-invade-ukraine-1750145

"Trump Blames U.S. for 'Almost Forcing' Putin to Invade Ukraine"

I thank God everyday that Biden is President -and NOT Trump. 

If Trump was President, there is a strong chance he'd be saying the opposite.

I doubt it. 

[Frodo]

Eight Years of Combat Hardened Ukraine’s Army Into a Fighting Force

[Frodo]

Lukashenko and Putin are getting ready to reopen the northern front, this time including Belarussian troops as well as their Russian counterparts:

Belarus’s Lukashenko announces troop deployments with Russia amid escalations in Ukraine

At this point, the overthrow of Lukashenko's regime moves from an idle fantasy to a military imperative.  

[Frodo]

Lukashenko and Putin are getting ready to reopen the northern front, this time including Belarussian troops as well as their Russian counterparts:

Belarus’s Lukashenko announces troop deployments with Russia amid escalations in Ukraine

At this point, the overthrow of Lukashenko's regime moves from an idle fantasy to a military imperative.  

There's enough ambiguity in this for Lukashenko to wiggle out of a deployment of Belarusian troops to Ukraine, especially considering that Belarus is now a significant source of military aid for Russia. He's achieved this for months and seems, in some ways, to be craftier than Putin.

It is more likely, in my view, that the standing Belarusian army is used to fix Ukrainian troops near the border as they have done for months. If there is to be any deeper involvement on their part, it could come in the form of them providing training infrastructure/services for the newly mobilised Russians. Belarusian training is probably crap but Russia needs mass and it's surely better than nothing.

Maybe.  Another possibility is that Putin wants Lukashenko to put all his cards on the table, and finally deploy his army for an all-out invasion so that untrained (and undertrained) Russian conscripts will at least have professional soldiers alongside them as they attack Ukraine from the north.  

[Frodo]

Next best thing to Ukraine joining NATO is to upgrade its post-war defenses and make them fully compatible with that of the alliance by the time it does officially become a member:

https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1580321684967817216
I am sure this is exactly what Putin had in mind when he invaded the country....

[Frodo]

Ukraine turning the tide of Russia war as defense turns to attack
Kyiv’s successful counter-offensive combines battlefield experience, use of NATO tactics, higher motivation and better conditions than Russian forces

[Frodo]

Operation Uranus (the Ukrainian version) continues to proceed:

https://twitter.com/thewarzonewire/status/1581406583535407104

[Frodo]

France ramps up war support for Ukraine, rebuilds armories

France on Sunday pledged air defense systems to protect Ukrainian cities against drone strikes, as well as an expanded training program for Ukrainian soldiers, as it seeks to puncture perceptions that French President Emmanuel Macron's government has lagged in supporting Ukraine militarily against the Russian invasion.

[Frodo]

Ukrainians are (understandably) on a high after their recent victories:

Ukrainians overwhelmingly want to keep fighting – and want Crimea back, survey says; 30% of power plants destroyed: Live updates

[Frodo]

Putin must be so relieved by this point -he knows now he can depend on the Republican Party to come through for him in the end.  All he has to do is hold on for just a few more months until Congress changes hands in January:

McCarthy: No 'blank check' for Ukraine if GOP wins majority

[Frodo]

It is more important for Ukraine to prevent Russia from withdrawing the nearly 30,000 troops it has in and around Kherson through cutting off Russian access to the Dnieper than it is to recapture the city itself.  The loss of such a large contingent of (relatively) better trained and equipped troops through encirclement (and eventual mass surrender) would be a bigger blow to Russia than the loss of Kherson:

Ukraine poised for crucial blow to Putin in battle for Kherson

[Frodo]

It is more important for Ukraine to prevent Russia from withdrawing the nearly 30,000 troops it has in and around Kherson through cutting off Russian access to the Dnieper than it is to recapture the city itself.  The loss of such a large contingent of (relatively) better trained and equipped troops through encirclement (and eventual mass surrender) would be a bigger blow to Russia than the loss of Kherson:

Ukraine poised for crucial blow to Putin in battle for Kherson

It is not clear all of those troops are on the left bank of the Dnieper. More importantly, Ukraine faces a real dilemma here as it is trying to save its land and people, not simply own the Russians. If it continues to besiege, or outright assault, a city full of trapped Russians, it will gain the following:

- Better chance of neutralising the troops you mentioned
- Probably more opportunities to capture equipment
- Better chance of preventing kidnappings of civilians in Kherson

It will lose:

- Opportunities to take advantage of fleeing Russians with easier escape routes (the Kharkiv morale breakdown)
- The avoidance of urban warfare as an attacker

This latter disadvantage is huge. Urban warfare is a bloody slog which may not work, will kill more civilians, exacerbate rebuilding costs in the aftermath of a successful campaign, and potentially provide Russia with good PR (because the attacker in urban warfare is rarely able to cover themselves in glory).

As I said before - there are no easy answers for Ukraine here. If Russia tries to evacuate men, materiel, collaborators and kidnapped civilians, they’ll have to choose between hurting all of those groups and the city itself or securing the land in a less defiled state but with fewer people saved/stopped.

Who says Ukrainian soldiers will have to engage in Stalingrad-like urban warfare when they could just sit outside and besiege the city, ringing it with anti-aircraft batteries to prevent resupply until the Russian surrender? In the meantime, by taking the western bank of the Dnieper, they would be cutting off any and all attempts by Russian forces on the opposite side of the river from rescuing their comrades.  And I very much doubt the Russians in Kherson will last as long as their German and Romanian counterparts did under General von Paulus when they got surrounded as a result of Operation Uranus.  It will be weeks, not months, before they would be forced to surrender.  

[Frodo]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1584181021544570880

A Huge embarrassment for Wagner.  If they can't hold an asphalt factory, what can they do?

Terrorize and kill innocent civilians behind the frontlines in an inept attempt to deal with partisans, perhaps?  

[Frodo]

This could be a problem:

https://twitter.com/thewarzonewire/status/1585417240614240257

The ghost of our failure in Afghanistan has come back to haunt us in Ukraine.