2014 state legislature (general) elections

[Frodo]

The CO, IA, and WV Democratic State Senates are also at risk of falling to the GOP while NH the opposite. As was already mentioned, the KY House of Reps. is in the biggest trouble out of perhaps all of them, and the MI House of Reps. should also be closely watched to because only 5 seats need to be lost there by Republicans and of course, the GOP leadership there is very unpopular.

I knew the West Virginia House (in addition to the Kentucky House) will probably be under Republican control next year, but I never thought that the GOP also had a chance at taking over the West Virginia Senate as well.  They could probably narrow the margin in that chamber (currently 24D: 10R), but I would think that an outright takeover of that chamber is beyond their reach, at least this election cycle. 

[Frodo]

Anyone want to make any predictions (or updates) now that we are a month away from election day? 

[Frodo]

Last chance for predictions before election day..... 

[Frodo]

This guy on Monkey Cage

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/31/republicans-forecast-to-win-5-state-senates-and-9-state-houses/

is predicting a large number of GOP victories at the state legislative level.

Data being here

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/files/2014/10/klarner_chamber_forecasts.pdf

According to this, the closest races will be NY State Senate (makes sense as that will be close),  Nevada State House, and Oregon State House.

Interesting.  So for the states that I am primarily interested in, this is likely going to be the approximate breakdown after the election:

Arkansas House:

59R: 41D

Arkansas Senate:

22R: 13D

Kentucky House:

55R: 45D

Kentucky Senate:

25R: 13D

West Virginia House:

63R: 37D

West Virginia Senate:

19D: 15R
--------------------

This guy uses percentages, not actual seats, so it is only easy to translate if the state chamber is question has 100 seats.   

[Frodo]

And it doesn't look like Democrats can make good on their losses in North Carolina, apparently. 

[Frodo]

Arkansas House:

59R: 41D

Arkansas Senate:

22R: 13D

Kentucky House:

55R: 45D

Kentucky Senate:

25R: 13D

West Virginia House:

63R: 37D

West Virginia Senate:

19D: 15R

Lord help America.

And just think what would happen to the Democratic Party in Kentucky if (and when) Republicans gain control of the governor's mansion in 2015, and (at a minimum) holds on to that and the legislature in 2019/20, just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting cycle...

[Frodo]

And just think what would happen to the Democratic Party in Kentucky if (and when) Republicans gain control of the governor's mansion in 2015, and (at a minimum) holds on to that and the legislature in 2019, just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting cycle...

The governorship is almost useless in Kentucky anyway. The legislature can override a veto with a simple majority.

On the other hand, I see less support for the GOP on the ground than I have at any time I can remember. I just talked to some folks on Friday who said they're voting straight ticket Democratic. This is a county that was McConnell +25 in 2008, but now I see Grimes signs all over the place, and only one McConnell sign. Grimes has huge turnout for her rallies all over the state, while McConnell has to pay people just to get one-tenth the turnout.

For what it's worth, the state rep for my district is a Democrat running unopposed but has had some real challengers before. Our state senator is a Republican who is retiring, but the very Republican local newspaper just endorsed a Democrat for this seat. The county was Romney +23 in 2012 and Bush +34 in 1988.

How can a Republican electoral trend square with less actual GOP support among the general public? This isn't just Kentucky but other states too (even big ones).

Going by the state legislature, where are most Democratic-held seats concentrated, besides the cities?  Eastern Kentucky?  

[Frodo]

Going by the state legislature, where are most Democratic-held seats concentrated, besides the cities?  Eastern Kentucky?  

If anywhere, I'd say eastern Kentucky. But a lot of the Democrats running there are unopposed this time.

Right.  Eastern Kentucky (besides being your home) is where the coal mines are concentrated -and that by extension means that is where the mining unions have their greatest influence.  

And Republicans are strongest in the central part of the state, with growing strength in western Kentucky, which -as it happens- is where they are looking to make gains in the legislature.
-----------

Vosem is right, BTW.  If I were to make predictions based on where I live and who I talk to (oblivious to the rest of the state), I would wonder why Democrats aren't dominating the Virginia General Assembly...

[Frodo]

Post state legislative election results here. 

[Frodo]

Incidentally, the West Virginia House somehow fell to the GOP by probably 62-38.

This should make Kentuckians all the more thankful that the Democrats control the Kentucky House.

Where are you getting these election results?

[Frodo]

Incidentally, the West Virginia House somehow fell to the GOP by probably 62-38.

This should make Kentuckians all the more thankful that the Democrats control the Kentucky House.

Where are you getting these election results?

Daily Kos.

Thanks.

It appears that the West Virginia Senate is now tied. 

[Frodo]

KY House was quite significant too. They held up as Grimes collapsed.

Gerrymandering can do wonders in staving off the inevitable.  We'll see if that eventually falls to the Republicans too before the end of this decade.  It is the one remaining southern chamber that doesn't already have a GOP majority.  They have everything else in the region, now that the West Virginia Senate has gone blue.  

[Frodo]

I wonder how low Democrats will go after the 2015 elections in the South, particularly in the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia legislatures...  

[Frodo]

Results are nearly all in (waiting on Washington and Colorado at NCSL). Oregon wasn't too bad actually; Republicans lost two, maybe three, seats from some of their popular incumbents in Obama districts retiring. Democrats picked up 1 seat in the OR state house (now 35D-25R) and 1 (maybe 2 once counting is fully complete) in the OR state senate (now at least 17D-12R): http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This means automatic voter registration could pass next year; the Oregon Secretary of State says she wants to try passing it again as, in 2013, it passed the state house but failed 15-15 in the state senate (then 16D-14R) when a Democrat sided with Republicans to vote against it. That bill could register hundreds of thousands of new voters.

Good to see.  

Also, why are Democrats doing better in Oregon than they are in Washington state?  

[Frodo]

Also, why are Democrats doing better in Oregon than they are in Washington state? 

In WA Republicans have been lucky / Democrats unlucky in several Obama voting areas (LD-41 is D+10, yet has elected a Republican in both 2010 and 2012), especially in the suburbs of Seattle to the East, SouthEast, and around Tacoma/Pierce County. Some excellent candidates this time around with Tom Steyer money didn't seem to make it through. I remember in 2010 when so many Democrats in swingy suburban districts lost seats, and this time the GOP dominated against some fairly strong candidates. Democrats do have a lot of fodder against them for mismanaging the budget under Gregoire, but not sure why they can't seem to win any of the fairly easy Eastside districts, and have completely lost a hold of more exurban King/Pierce/Kitsap county districts. Unfortunately most of the vulnerable districts are not up for election again until 2018.

So are Republicans just structurally stronger in Washington state compared to their counterparts in Oregon?