Like another poster said, it really does seem like voters were looking for an excuse -any excuse- to abandon Obama and support Romney. And it seems like the first debate gave it to them. If President Obama doesn't turn the tide in the second debate, he is done.
I concur that Obama needs a victory to regain momentum, but I'd hardly say that he is done if he loses. Obama still has an electoral advantage. The election is being fought on Bush 2004 states (with the exception of NH and WI). Now, if Romney starts pulling even in states like Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, then that'd be cause for concern.
That's why I said the second debate is crucial -despite the setback in Denver, Obama still retains -as you said- an electoral advantage. If he doesn't turn things around in New York on Tuesday, he will lose what remains of the built-in advantages of incumbency.
