Final conclusion:
Obama will win re-election, by the same margin as 2008 or greater, simply because Obama's numbers are high enough so that it takes a significant event for the Republican's numbers to pass him. Undecideds are not going to break for Romney 2012 like Obama 2008. They will either break evenly, in which case Obama wins like 2008, or break for Obama, in which case an Obama landslide.
Obama's final surge was due to the housing bubble crisis and McCain's inept response to it. Absent a comparable mistake on the part of the Romney campaign, Obama will not achieve the same margin as in 2008, tho unless Obama goofs he is likely to obtain a narrow win.
Considering all the tone-deaf mistakes Romney has made on this campaign, I wouldn't put it past him to make yet another.
