OH: More Money Stuff (August)

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In addition to Cincinnati Mayor Cranley coming 2nd in a three-way jungle primary, Youngstown Mayor John McNally lost the Democratic Primary last night to former CCP Jamael Brown.

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Thing went way more sideways in the Youngstown local elections that I realized. Every candidate endorsed by the Mahoning County Democratic Party lost their primary.

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Thing went way more sideways in the Youngstown local elections that I realized. Every candidate endorsed by the Mahoning County Democratic Party lost their primary.

The mahoning valley is changing quickly

You think it's really an extension of the Trump phenomenon? Or is it more corruption associated with specific high ranking Dems in Youngstown?

The latter. Also some race dynamics. Mahoning County Young Dems endorsed a lot of candidates the County Party didn't.

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Mike DeWine killed a Fair Redistricting amendment yesterday. Republicans in the State poll as favoring fair districts, so this may bite him.

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Mike DeWine killed a Fair Redistricting amendment yesterday. Republicans in the State poll as favoring fair districts, so this may bite him.

Interestingly, his main opponent Husted has been a frequent and vocal supporter of redistricting reform for some time.

Yeah, I suspect Husted will leverage that attack against him.

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Officially in, not challenging Mandel for Senate.

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So a pretty weak protection, since it'd still be up to partisan electeds.

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No. There may not be such a thing as someone who's truly political independent, but you can do much better than blatantly partisan electeds.

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Whaley's official, y'all.

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Whaley's official, y'all.

Probably the second best candidate, after Cordray. Good to see (almost) A-list candidates jump in. Hopefully Wisconsin dems also get a clue.

Maybe it's cause I lean the opposite way but I think she's a weak candidate headed for a 3rd place finish in the primary.

Whaley really should've run for Turner's seat, she's gonna come in dead last.

Yeah, I'm not in anyway enthralled. I agree with X and RJ's analyses.

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Sorry to all fans of TD, but Cordray ain't running.

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No, sorry, I was just prognosticating.

It's long been reported he'd have to get in by May to clear things up.

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Pillich made a very strange campaign promise to not send members of the Ohio National guard to into any military action not authorized by Congress.

The Youbgstown Vindicator is calling Sutton the early Democratic front runner, which isn't good news for Schiavoni, since the local paper should be for him. If primaries were won on Facebook likes, Sutton would be dead last with Schiavoni and Whaley tied for first. This might indicate Sutton's popular with older Democrats, which would be logical. Schiavoni and Whaley are both fairly young.

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If Cordray gets in I will, as they say, eat my hat.

It would be funny watching everyone else scramble to get out/down the ticket. I could see Sutton staying in, though, and that would be unfortunate.

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Kathleen Clyde is officially in for Secretary of State.

EDIT: Also, the idea Cordray would play well in SE Ohio is garbage. Strickland tanked in Appalachia, and he was still something of a folk legend in his old Congressional District. Some of that might be about his flip on the 2nd Amendment, but I wouldn't count on Cordray's gun position not also having "evolved."

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Kathleen Clyde is officially in for Secretary of State.

EDIT: Also, the idea Cordray would play well in SE Ohio is garbage. Strickland tanked in Appalachia, and he was still something of a folk legend in his old Congressional District. Some of that might be about his flip on the 2nd Amendment, but I wouldn't count on Cordray's gun position not also having "evolved."

That was during the Tea Party wave of 2010...something tells me that's not gonna happen in 2018 and if anything the Democrats are much more likely to be in a favorable environment.

Pretty sure he was talking about the 2016 Senate campaign.

I am. Very few Dems can get those sort of numbers out of Appalachia still, even in a good year.

Strickland did fine in Appalachia in 2010. People forget Kasich barely won with 2% that year.

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I suppose it's worth noting that Clyde is the only down-ticket Dem officially in. Dettelbach and others' ambitions may be transparent, as Clyde was, but none of them are official. Though speaking about the AG, Athens County Prosecutor Keller Blackburn has been stirring up some noise.

Also, the Cincinnati Enquirer is reporting a rumor Pillich might drop out to challenge the lone Republican remaining on the Hamilton County Board of Commissioners.

Republican Ohio Supreme Justice Sharon Kennedy is being sued for speaking to a Right to Life group in Toledo, an alleged violation of ethics rules. Doubt this has legs, but would be great to see her go.

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State Senator Frank LaRose is officially running for Secretary of State, creating what will likely be an ugly Republican primary for the office as he faces off against House Majority Leader, Dorothy Pelanda.

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State Senator Frank LaRose is officially running for Secretary of State, creating what will likely be an ugly Republican primary for the office as he faces off against House Majority Leader, Dorothy Pelanda.

I expect LaRose to win there and beat Clyde, Clyde should be hoping for a Pelanda win.

That primary is going to be u-g-l-y. Whoever emerges will be battered.

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LaRose is pretty moderate, no?

By some standards, maybe. But the Ohio legislature is the 8th most conservative in the country.

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You don't get to be House Majority Leader without putting in work and making connections. And who else besides Sprauge is even looking at Treasurer?

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You don't get to be House Majority Leader without putting in work and making connections. And who else besides Sprauge is even looking at Treasurer?

Mingo is running, but if Sprague has any opposition research team then he'll lose the primary.  Either way, it's probably Leland's if he wants it.

Derp. Forgot about Mingo.

I kinda hope Leland runs for Auditor instead. Treasurer's important, but not on the redistricting commission.

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You don't get to be House Majority Leader without putting in work and making connections. And who else besides Sprauge is even looking at Treasurer?

Mingo is running, but if Sprague has any opposition research team then he'll lose the primary.  Either way, it's probably Leland's if he wants it.

Derp. Forgot about Mingo.

I kinda hope Leland runs for Auditor instead. Treasurer's important, but not on the redistricting commission.

I was wondering why there were rumors he was now also considering running for Auditor.  I think Leland would beat Faber too although the latter would be a tougher opponent than Sprague or Mingo.  That said, I think he still runs for Treasurer.  If he runs for Auditor then I could see Pillich dropping down to Treasurer and there have been rumors Zack Space is interested too, but I'd much rather see him run against Bob Gibbs as wave insurance.  I know the Mayor of Lorain was being mentioned as a possible candidate for Auditor, but I haven't heard anything about him lately and I can't imagine he'd run against one man fundraising machine known as Dave Leland

Seems likely he runs for Treasurer. It has the weakest opposition, and Leland looks like the strongest candidate we have.

I've also heard the Space rumor, which is interesting. It would be a pretty big wave to take out Gibbs, and Space hasn't represented much of the territory in the district as the population base shifted significantly northwards with redistricting. Space is working in Columbus now, anyway.

Chase Ritenauer has a promising future, I think. But I'm doubtful he gets in. Would rather have him around to run in the 33rd Senate district when Gayle Manning is term limited out. Definitely the most winnable state senate seat -- even if the Mannings are fundraising machines.

EDIT: Former Youngstown Mayor, Jay Williams, will not run for Governor, having taken a job in Connecticut.

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I really hope DeWine wins the primary, but looking at the financing so far, and Husted's minimal disadvantage in polls despite not being anywhere near as well known, I have my doubts.

Back in 2014, before Fitz blew up, a Dem party operative told me there was no way we could take out Husted because he was too likable and had his name up on everything. It certainly didn't help that Turner was his opponent, but you're not supposed to say that sort of thing.

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I really hope DeWine wins the primary, but looking at the financing so far, and Husted's minimal disadvantage in polls despite not being anywhere near as well known, I have my doubts.

Back in 2014, before Fitz blew up, a Dem party operative told me there was no way we could take out Husted because he was too likable and had his name up on everything. It certainly didn't help that Turner was his opponent, but you're not supposed to say that sort of thing.

I'm a Husted fan and I think he's in the best position.

I figured ds would be hoping for Taylor

Sure. I just doubt it will be her. Or Renacci, for that matter. If it's going to be Husted or DeWine, which I think it will be, I'd prefer DeWine.