How does Warren make a comeback?

[Shadows]

Warren continues on a sharp slide in her RCP average for the nomination.
Since her high-point in early October, she has fallen almost 13 points.
That's quite large.
What has happened to cause such a large decline in support for Warren?
And will it stabilize, or will the down-trend continue?

She has lost progressives to Sanders & moderates to Pete. Probably more to Pete. Going by this graph, I would say 7% to Pete, 4% odd to Sanders & maybe 2% to Biden & others combined.

There is a somewhat moderate white rich boomer & above 45 bloc which is shifting from Beto to Harris to Warren to Pete in search of a fresh face. It is such a fickle demographic. This 7% odd bloc got Pete to 11-12% from 5%, it has got Beto to 11-12%, it got Kamala to 15% (That & some Black Biden voters), it got Warren to 15% (That & some Sanders voters who has since gone home). I am not sure that bloc is even a reliable voting bloc for any candidate.

If Warren doesn't have a strong debate & loses her momentum, she will bleed more Bernie 2016 voters since Sanders is now the 2nd choice. She needs an incredibly strong debate & she needs to take voters away from Pete.

[Shadows]

Well she kinda kamikazed herself, but she’s come back from the dead before (DNA thing). I wouldn’t write her off just yet,  but it’s basically do or die for her in Iowa and NH where she needs to win at least one of them

She is currently polling 3rd behind Pete & Sanders. Sanders is leading in the last 2 NH polls & Pete has some momentum too. In Iowa, Pete is leading with Bernie, Warren & Biden all behind. It is a fluid race & anything can happen. Any of the 4 contenders can win Iowa or NH.

But if current trend persists & Pete wins Iowa with Sanders 2nd & if Sanders wins NH with Pete 2nd, then Warren has to drop out after NH. She has to win 1 of the 2. She can't lose Iowa to Pete & NH to Sanders while being from Massachusetts. She anyways was going to lose Nevada & South Carolina which makes Iowa/NH all the more important.

[Shadows]

Well she kinda kamikazed herself, but she’s come back from the dead before (DNA thing). I wouldn’t write her off just yet,  but it’s basically do or die for her in Iowa and NH where she needs to win at least one of them

She is currently polling 3rd behind Pete & Sanders. Sanders is leading in the last 2 NH polls & Pete has some momentum too. In Iowa, Pete is leading with Bernie, Warren & Biden all behind. It is a fluid race & anything can happen. Any of the 4 contenders can win Iowa or NH.

But if current trend persists & Pete wins Iowa with Sanders 2nd & if Sanders wins NH with Pete 2nd, then Warren has to drop out after NH. She has to win 1 of the 2. She can't lose Iowa to Pete & NH to Sanders while being from Massachusetts. She anyways was going to lose Nevada & South Carolina which makes Iowa/NH all the more important.

Agree that Warren has to win IA and/or NH, but her chances are better than you portray them to be and she can win Nevada. Nevada is not the same as South Carolina. Also the 'if current trend persists' point is a big if. Trends with two months to go before the primaries start often don't persist.

I would say you are right if not for the latest Morning Consult poll which is a large sample size credible poll.

Warren has gone to 4th in the Early States behind Pete (Including Nevada & SC). She is now @ paltry 12% in Early States (Biden 25%, Bernie 20%). Even Steyer is @ 9% (meaning she is 3% above Steyer). She has also fallen nationally in the MC Poll to 15% but her fall in Early States has been much more sharp & rapid & those performances in Iowa & NH will cost her dear.

The reason I say that she can't win Nevada is because in virtually all polls among Hispanics either Biden or Bernie are leading with Warren far behind & you can't be that behind & win Nevada. Maybe she can win Nevada but it won't matter if she has fallen this far behind in Iowa & NH.