Kamala Harris 2020 campaign megathread

[Shadows]

This is terrible.

[Shadows]

Harris' candidacy may well be over with Beto's rise. She will lose some support to Beto, Biden will lose a lot of support to Beto & even Sanders will lose some support to Beto.

Beto, Bernie & Biden will be the Top 3. Harris has lost her mantle of being the younger generation challenger to Bernie & Bernie.

If Biden & Bernie continue to hold sway for another 3-4 months, there is only room for 1 challenger (assuming Warren remains intact @ 5-10%)

[Shadows]

Kamala Harris takes early lead in the big-money race

Harris has already received donations from 176 people or couples who raised at least $100,000, and sometimes many multiples of that, for Hillary Clinton in 2016 or at least $50,000 for Barack Obama in 2012, according to a POLITICO analysis of new campaign finance disclosures and “bundler” data from the Center for Responsive Politics. While the Democratic presidential campaigns have been focused on building small-donor armies this year, bundlers mine their networks for checks to pass along to campaigns six or seven-figures at a time, giving them a potentially massive role in a crowded primary.

Harris has received donations from more than twice as many top Democratic fundraisers as her next closest competitor, Cory Booker, who got donations from 80 Obama and Clinton bundlers in the first quarter, according to POLITICO’s review of campaign finance reports. The network helped Harris post the second-best fundraising total of any Democratic presidential candidate in the first quarter, $12 million — most of which came from donors who gave at least $200 each.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/17/kamala-harris-leads-campaign-money-race-1280546

[Shadows]

Just trying to understand who these people are who were granted pell grants but also have the capital to start a business in a disadvantaged area and can ensure it is successful for at least three years - Random Twitter comment.

Harris has the worst policies of all candidates in terms of details. She rushes into stupid policies. Her tax bill was stupid too. Gave needless tax credit to the tune of 100's of billions for no reason.

She needs to hire Warren's policy advisor. She is clearly out of her depth & needs more time. She should have run after spending atleast 1 term in the Senate. If she is serious about 2020, she should hire a good policy person ASAP !

[Shadows]

Harris with another ridiculous plan. She is a terrible candidate.

Her new Medicare for all, apart from preserving private insurance, would take 10 years. 10 years. So even if she wins re-election & serves for 8 years, she would not be able to implement Medicare for all over 2 terms & would leave it in the hands of the next President.

[Shadows]

Also those lines about withholding evidence which would have set innocent people given the death sentence & on using prisoners as cheap labour was brutal.

True false exaggeration or whatever, how Gabbard delivered absolutely wrecked Harris.

[Shadows]

Kamala Harris is skipping CNN's Climate Townhall so that she can attend a fundraiser with top bundlers in California.

Total scumbag politician. #Forthedonors !

[Shadows]

Harris dropped 12 points in the new CNN poll. Her candidacy is imploding & I don't know how she comes back. She is basically in the Beto/Buttigieg tier  now or a bit better in some polls.

Her 5-9% support is basically because of California where she is polling 15-20%. Without California she is probably below 5% or around 5% in most states.

She has to do more fundraisers because soon she won't even have the money to compete.

[Shadows]

Kamala Harris raises over $1 million at Hamptons and Martha's Vineyard fundraisers

Sen. Kamala Harris raised over $1 million through several campaign fundraisers in the wealthy enclaves of the Hamptons on Long Island and Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. Harris attended multiple events last weekend in the affluent vacation spots, including five in the Hamptons.

One of the Hamptons events was hosted by public relations executive Michael Kempner. That gathering raised double than the campaign’s original goal and had more than 150 people attend, according to those briefed on the matter. Tickets ranged from $1,000 to $2,800. While at the events, Harris picked up a few new wealthy supporters and they are expected to host other money-making events for her in New York next month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/22/kamala-harris-raises-1-million-at-hamptons-marthas-vineyard-fundraisers.html

#Forthedonors

[Shadows]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1166418066550472704

She has to do well in Iowa because NH will be tough & although Nevada seems tough to poll, in all polls in NV so far or even states like Colorado she is not doing well.

She needs to to get to 12-13% in Iowa so that she gets some 2nd choice voters of Pete, Beto, Booker & can reach 15%. If she doesn't get past 15% in Iowa, the narrative becomes that she has 0 delegates & only Bernie, Warren & Biden get delegates & are in the race. Then you add a thumping loss in NH where she gets 5-7% odd or at best 8% & far behind Sanders, Warren & Biden.

She goes with no momentum to Nevada & the media will write her off. Fundraising will tank. She will have little money to compete in California & Texas in Super Tuesday. Even big donors & bundlers don't want to waste money on a losing campaign.

So Harris has to get to 12-13% in Iowa in 1st choice. Otherwise she has virtually no path to the nomination & won't even touch double digits in South Carolina (She is barely @ 12% now in 3 polls). Iowa will make or break Harris & it is good that she has realized that.

[Shadows]

I mean, the more I think about it, I think Harris is basically cooked even if she were to win Iowa.  She thought she was going to win black voters, but they're sticking with Biden, and stories of his past as Grand Mufti of the KKK haven't scared them off.

Harris got a nice bump when she made a good first impression at the debate and stole some black voters from Biden.  Now they have gone back to Biden.

Unless Biden falls apart, she's not going to win South Carolina, she's not going to win delegates in the south on Super Tuesday, and she's not going to have enough money to compete in California.  We're already only 5 months away from Iowa.

The campaign has a critical choice to make.  Harris can either:

• All-out attack Biden, maximizing her odds of winning but putting her long-term political career at risk if she cements a reputation as a cantankerous attack dog.
• Align herself with the far-left and try to steal black voters from Bernie and woman voters from Warren.  Problem is she already tried this at the beginning of the campaign and it didn't work.  Not only do progressive voters not trust her due to her flip-flopping but you simply can't out-Bernie Bernie.
• Stay on the same path she's on now and be remembered as a big-time flop.
• Switch to running a super-positive campaign, only barely compete, try to build a more positive reputation and angle for the VP slot.  Cory Booker already seems to be doing this though and he will be better at it due to a much cleaner record.

Harris has a path if she wins Iowa.

Iowa - Harris, Sanders/Warren, Sanders/Warren, Biden
NH - Sanders/Warren, Sanders/Warren, Biden, Harris
Nevada - Sanders/Warren, Harris, Sanders/Warren/Biden, Sanders/Warren/Biden
SC - Harris, Biden, Sanders/Warren, Sanders/Warren

Basically she needs to win Iowa & for Biden to finish 4th. That is possible in a 3 way race. You lose 3-4% & you can go from 1st to 4th in no time.

She can't win NH. But the good press can get her to a Top 2/3 Position above Biden. But it seems unlikely & she seems a bad fit. Her best bet if Sanders or Warren take the Top 2 spots in NH.

By the time Nevada comes, the narrative is Biden comes 4th in Iowa & 3/4th in NH & Harris has 1 victory & Sanders/Warren the other. She needs to finish atleast Top 2 & above Biden in Nevada & for Sanders/Warren to win. Hopefully a different person to NH winner but unlikely though.

SC - The narrative is that Biden has come 3rd or 4th. His gaffes get highlighted, his support questioned as would his electability. Harris would have come from a victory in Iowa & a strong 2nd place in Nevada whereas Biden would be nowhere. With that, she would coalesce establishment support, get more endorsements & win SC.

After Early 4 States, Harris would have won 2 states & Sanders/Warren combined 2. Biden 0.

Biden has little momentum & drops out or gets humiliated in Super Tuesday & goes out.

Seems far fetched but Harris has to win Iowa or come 2nd above Biden @ the very least to be in the game. Ideally she should win. Current polling & National polling data doesn't show her as any major support among hispanics or among working class or union folks so Nevada seems tough.

I don't how Harris wins the nomination without winning Iowa. She will take a beating in NH & Nevada & by current national polling come 4th in Iowa. You can't win SC with that momentum. You will be written off & will have no money to compete. Iowa will make or break Harris & she anyways has a very tough path to the nomination.

[Shadows]

Harris is 5th behind Mayor Pete in Iowa & NH in the new CBS Poll. She is well below 15% & will get 0 delegates.

Will she make it to SC or drop out after Iowa or NH ?

[Shadows]

Her attack on Warren for not supporting Trump being banned from Trump was absolutely bizarre & insanely stupid. One of the most stupid arguments ever made by a top tier candidate.

Equally bad was her focus grouped tested stage managed performance where she went after Biden in Debate 1 & 2 & then spend the entire Debate going after Trump in Debate 3 which looked totally inauthentic. This lack of authenticity & bizarre arguments are going to hurt her future Presidential campaigns.

[Shadows]

Kamala is @ 3% in the new NH poll. She is 8/9th place & is behind Yang, Gabbard & Klobuchar.

She needs to go all in on Iowa & come in the Top 2/3 somehow. She needs to beat Pete & 1 of Bernie/Warren/Biden.

Otherwise she has to drop out after Iowa & NH. She has to go all in on Iowa.

[Shadows]

Harris with massive staff cuts. She is essentially moving most staff away from NH, Nevada & California & into Iowa in an all or nothing strategy in Iowa. Also overall huge cuts including among people working in her campaign headquarters.

She is facing a cash crunch & people will also be taking paycuts apart from the job cuts. She will probably drop out after Iowa if she can't get a Top 3 finish. That is if she can last till Iowa. Harris, Booker, Beto all have fallen big & I am not even sure if they will make it till Iowa.