AL-Fox News: DOUG +8

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Among voters under age 45, Jones has a 31-point lead, 61 percent to 30 percent. Jones wins 91 percent of Democratic voters, while Moore is at 78 percent among Republicans. Only 3 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Moore, but about 13 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Jones. Jones has a wide advantage among women, 58 percent to 32 percent. Moore has only a slight edge with voters 45 and older, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Moore has a 19-point lead among white voters, 56 percent to 37 percent. Jones is competitive among white voters with a college degree — Moore leads by just 4 points among them — but Moore has a 64 percent to 29 percent lead among white voters without college degrees. Among white voters who identify as evangelical Christians, Moore leads, 73 percent to 20 percent. Nearly three-quarters of likely Moore voters, 74 percent, say they don’t believe the allegations against him; only 7 percent of Moore voters believe the allegations. Among likely Jones voters, 64 believe the allegations against Moore, and 10 percent do not.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/16/roy-moore-doug-jones-alabama-poll-245558

Jones is doing well among young voters, women, African Americans, Democratic voters, running up strong margins. Along with that you add Independents & some college educated white folks.

Moore is still doing amazing with evangelicals & poorly educated white folks (Still winning the white vote overall !!!!). Most of his supporters don't even believe the allegations.

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Among voters under age 45, Jones has a 31-point lead, 61 percent to 30 percent. Jones wins 91 percent of Democratic voters, while Moore is at 78 percent among Republicans. Only 3 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Moore, but about 13 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Jones. Jones has a wide advantage among women, 58 percent to 32 percent. Moore has only a slight edge with voters 45 and older, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Moore has a 19-point lead among white voters, 56 percent to 37 percent. Jones is competitive among white voters with a college degree — Moore leads by just 4 points among them — but Moore has a 64 percent to 29 percent lead among white voters without college degrees. Among white voters who identify as evangelical Christians, Moore leads, 73 percent to 20 percent. Nearly three-quarters of likely Moore voters, 74 percent, say they don’t believe the allegations against him; only 7 percent of Moore voters believe the allegations. Among likely Jones voters, 64 believe the allegations against Moore, and 10 percent do not.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/16/roy-moore-doug-jones-alabama-poll-245558

Jones is doing well among young voters, women, African Americans, Democratic voters, running up strong margins. Along with that you add Independents & some college educated white folks.

Moore is still doing amazing with evangelicals & poorly educated white folks (Still winning the white vote overall !!!!). Most of his supporters don't even believe the allegations.

So we could be looking at Jones putting together another Northam coalition?

Northam coalition? Lol. I would say it is the Wulfric coalition. Put any random reasonable bloke with a D & he will put this coalition. It could actually be bigger IMO. Not much of a cross-over effect so far.

Women & Young people & educated folks driving the numbers. The numbers with evangelicals are disappointing.

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

You make a very good point. It is not just about winning Young Whites by huge number for Dems. It is the cumulative effect of both boomers dying & millennials coming to the voting age.

Let us say the Boomers who die are around R+40 for White Males while the new people coming into the voting age are R+5. Even that is a huge shift. GOP is losing the strongest voting bloc which is being replaced by a toss-up or lean R bloc.

Also, while people can argue that you turn conservative as you age, the rate here is clearly not massive enough to offset this change. The 30-45 odd generation for example is still very left leaning & liberal & has barely shifted rightwards. 2020 election will be an interesting test for the GOP & 2024 could be the realignment.