50%. This "Jones would be DOA" argument is nonsense IMO. The Republican Party in states like AL, LA and ND is hilariously inept and the Democrats have done extremely well in Senate races in many red states in 2012. Republicans aren't even capable of beating Claire McCaskill, so why wouldn't they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in AL again?
I can't believe I'm saying this, but Treasurer has it right. Safe state parties face competitive elections so rarely, they generally have absolutely no idea how to manage them when they actually come up. It's why Massachusetts Democrats squandered two races by grace of Coakley, and why the NDGOP looks set to blow the 2018 Senate race.
Heitkamp's senate seat has been Democratic for 57 years, so that might not be the best example.
Wasn't Manchin's seat also the one Byrd held for like 50 years? WV was a cornerstone of the New Deal coalition electing Democrats for like 70-80 years at a stretch. There are many such economically left-of-center states which Dems lost due to abortion, gay marriage, affirmative action, etc reasons.
70% of the folks in Oklahoma are pro-life & oppose gay marriage, so the state is lost even before economic issues can take front & center.
