Cruz would have carried Florida. He may have carried Pennsylvania and Ohio, but I'm not sure he'd have carried Iowa, and he'd have lost Michigan and Wisconsin. I can't think of a state Cruz would have won that Trump lost.
Nevada. And perhaps Virginia, Colorado & New Hampshire if Hillary does very badly. And if Ron Johnson can win Wisconsin, then Ted Cruz probably will as well. Michigan, I just don't see Cruz winning. Cruz is an ace debater & he is an expert in lying & cooking up facts & numbers in debates.
He is also very smart & intelligent. He has no major scandals & doesn't have the temperament problems that Trump has. Trump helped Hillary with so many issues of his. With Cruz the attention will always be on Hillary, the Clinton foundation, her emails & so on. That helps Cruz big time.
Cruz was constantly running ahead of Trump in the polls vs Hillary, so that has to be considered. In the end maybe, Ted Cruz is too divisive & radical a candidate to win, but I think he would win vs Hillary.