Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info

[Shadows]

Wrong Party Reps:

MN-7: Peterson (D)- R+12
FL-26: Curbelo (R)- D+6
MN-1: Walz (D)- R+5
FL-25: Ros-Lehtinen (R)- D+5
CA-21: Valadao (R)- D+5
MN-8: Nolan (D)- R+4
NY-24: Katko (R)- D+3
NJ-5: Gottheimer (D)- R+3
NV-3: Rosen (D)- R+2
NH-1: Shea-Porter (D)- R+2
CO-6: Coffman (R)- D+2
AZ-1: O'Halleran (D)- R+2
IA-1: Blum (R)- D+1 (it's only still D+ because Obama won it by 14 in 2012)
MN-3: Paulsen (R)- D+1
PA-17: Cartwright (D)- R+1
VA-10: Comstock (R)- D+1
NY-18: Maloney (D)- R+1

9 Democrats sit in seats with R+PVIs, while 8 Republicans are in D+ seats.  The 8 even seats are split 4-4 (Republicans Denham, Royce, Knight, and Reichart, and Democrats Kind, DeFazio, Murphy, and Schrader).

8 Even Seats -

GOP Held - 3 CA & 1 WA
Dem Held - 1 NY, 2 OR, 1 WI

Dem's Best pick-ups as per PVI (D+3 & more)

FL 26 CURBELO, CARLOS (R) D+6
FL 27 ROS-LEHTINEN, ILEANA (R) D+ 5
CA 21 VALADAO, DAVID (R) D+5
CA 3 Garamendi, John (D) D+ 5
NY 24 KATKO, JOHN (R) D+3
 
5 Seats in CA, 1 in WA, 2 in Florida around Miami-Dade, 1 in NY etc.

There loads of seats to be gained in CA & NY & Dems have not performed well down-ballot in these states as much as they should have !

[Shadows]

Wrong Party Reps:

MN-7: Peterson (D)- R+12
FL-26: Curbelo (R)- D+6
MN-1: Walz (D)- R+5
FL-25: Ros-Lehtinen (R)- D+5
CA-21: Valadao (R)- D+5
MN-8: Nolan (D)- R+4
NY-24: Katko (R)- D+3
NJ-5: Gottheimer (D)- R+3
NV-3: Rosen (D)- R+2
NH-1: Shea-Porter (D)- R+2
CO-6: Coffman (R)- D+2
AZ-1: O'Halleran (D)- R+2
IA-1: Blum (R)- D+1 (it's only still D+ because Obama won it by 14 in 2012)
MN-3: Paulsen (R)- D+1
PA-17: Cartwright (D)- R+1
VA-10: Comstock (R)- D+1
NY-18: Maloney (D)- R+1

9 Democrats sit in seats with R+PVIs, while 8 Republicans are in D+ seats.  The 8 even seats are split 4-4 (Republicans Denham, Royce, Knight, and Reichart, and Democrats Kind, DeFazio, Murphy, and Schrader).

8 Even Seats -

GOP Held - 3 CA & 1 WA
Dem Held - 1 NY, 2 OR, 1 WI

Dem's Best pick-ups as per PVI (D+3 & more)

FL 26 CURBELO, CARLOS (R) D+6
FL 27 ROS-LEHTINEN, ILEANA (R) D+ 5
CA 21 VALADAO, DAVID (R) D+5
CA 3 Garamendi, John (D) D+ 5
NY 24 KATKO, JOHN (R) D+3
 
5 Seats in CA, 1 in WA, 2 in Florida around Miami-Dade, 1 in NY etc.

There loads of seats to be gained in CA & NY & Dems have not performed well down-ballot in these states as much as they should have !

The other interesting note is that half of Minnesota is represented by the wrong party!

MN is a total mess & so are many other areas. Atleast the GOP maximizes its seats in deep red states. The Dems can't even maximize the seats in CA, NY, WA !

There is no logic why the Dems can't make the House competitive in 2018 if Trump's approval stays in the mid 30's but atleast the GOP is a capable party & will likely retain !

[Shadows]

MN is a total mess & so are many other areas. Atleast the GOP maximizes its seats in deep red states. The Dems can't even maximize the seats in CA, NY, WA !

This isn't really even a "if there is a will, there is a way"-type situation. Voting patterns of various states evolve over time, and if you look back at many Southern states, it took Republicans a lonnggg time to break through in legislative/House races. Democrats in places like Mississippi and Tennessee held most of their respective state's House seats mostly up until 2011, with some brief breaks prior. The reason the GOP looks so efficient at maximizing their gains here is that 8 years of Obama and 2 midterm waves, one being a census year, wiped us out and allowed them to further lock in their gains with better maps.

But there are many seats in CA & NY which Dems have held for years that aren't traditional GOP seats. Dems had lost some CA/NY seats in 2010 & have failed to get it back in 2012 or 2014. Dems have lost 900 odd Leg seats. They didn't lose WI, NC or PA Senate seats because the state was trending blue but GOP were hanging on to their seats !

There are some long term trends involved here - Loss of the WWC, Poor engagement of millennials, low turnout of the base, more people registering independent etc. I fully agree with you on all points but there are other reasons intermingled including the incompetence of the Dem party !