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YaBB God
Posts: 4,956
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« on: December 15, 2016, 02:17:55 PM » |
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2016 was a huge missed opportunity where Dems could pick up a lot of seats but s didn't. Current Stand - 52-48
Let us look at realistic Scenarios -
2018 - Likely/Lean R(Dem Seats) - IN, MO, MT, ND, WV (All 5 Seats are strong GOP fav where Trump won big) Toss up (Dem seats) - OH, FL (& maybe PA or WI or MI) Toss up (GOP seats) - AZ, NV
Even if Dems retain their toss-up states & take say 1 of AZ or NV & retain say 1 out of 5 almost sure-shot loser cases, they will lost a net of 3 seats.
Result - 55-45
2020 - Dem Toss up Seats - NH GOP Toss up Seats - NC, ME, IW, GA
Let us say Dems retain & wrest 1 seat for the GOP which looks as the best Dem scenario (realistic)
Result - 54-46
2022 -
Same as 2016 - GOP Toss up Seats - PA, NC, OH, MO , IW, GA, IN, FL Dems essentially need to win 5 out 7 of GOP toss-up seats (assuming IW, GA tighten - Trump does bad etc)
Let's say Dems win 5/8
Final Result - 51-49
This is way too optimistic & depends on Dems winning all their toss-up states & wresting more than half of GOP toss up states - Something they failed - 2016 with Trump could have been the year to pull a big deal in the Senate
It looks very VERY hard for the Dems to win the Senate even by 2022.
Do you feel there is any chance to retake the Senate in the near future?
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