Yeah, Trump's a bit ahead here, but Hillary led by this same margin not that long ago, so it's not like he's got Ohio.
At this stage consistent tracking polls for 3-4 months are only good enough to support historical date to decide which states to decide.
No swing state is locked up. If Hillary or Trump have 3 brilliant debate performances, this race is going +3/+4 to either side nationally & then you can forget worrying about individual states.
Obama did fantastic in the debates against Romney & McCain which helped his convincing victory!