Did Clinton do as well as expected on ST? (user search)
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  Did Clinton do as well as expected on ST? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Did Clinton do as well as expected on ST?  (Read 4838 times)
Shadows
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« on: March 02, 2016, 02:56:53 AM »

I also don't understand where is this ridiculous under-perform Obama thing is coming.Stupid logic. Obama's black votes are going entirely to Clinton, Obama won overall by 100+ Delegates & Obama did have significant Dem Support.

I did not see any results from MN or CO showing a Sanders win - The last 2 caucuses Sanders lost despite having a good chance of victory. MA Polls - Clinton was leading 5-7% in most polls recently conducted.

I was certainly surprised by almost 20% victory in MN, CO & 10 points in OK. Sanders significantly out-performed in CO, OK, MN but I think Alabama was a disaster & Texas-Virginia, etc should have been a bit better & would have given him 30 odd delegates (60 swing possibly).

Hillary did better in the Confederacy than expected but this is VERY BAD NEWS for the general as all these states will be Red States for sure.
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Shadows
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2016, 04:25:46 AM »

Vermont, Minnesota, and Colorado were always going to be big losses for Clinton unless Sanders utterly collapsed.  The press got a little carried away after Sanders got murdered in South Carolina and started wondering whether he could win any states other than Vermont, but that was just overreaction that's probably been forgotten.

Oklahoma was lean Sanders, Massachusetts was a toss-up.  Like the other two toss-ups, Clinton managed to eke out a victory.

The winner/loser results by state don't really show much of anything.  The race stayed at the status quo.  Bernie can keep the race going for a while but has little chance of winning, while the Clinton camp showed its professional operation once again by narrowly winning its third toss-up state.

The real story is how badly Bernie got killed in the southern states.  He lost by 2-1 margins in Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Arkansas, and by close to 3-1 margins in Georgia and 4-1 in Alabama.  While Clinton was always expected to win those states, she significantly outperformed in terms of delegate math.  Sanders winning Colorado gets him 33 delegates to Clinton's 24.  Oklahoma is 20-16.  Minnesota is 42-24.  But Clinton's victory in Alabama, for instance, gives her 37 delegates to Sanders' 4.  Arkansas is 18-7.  Georgia is 66-23.  Texas was 122-48.  Other than Vermont, when Bernie won he won small.  When Hillary won she won big.

Bernie may be able to beat Hillary in the midwestern and western states coming up, but where is he going to crush her?  Where is he going to get his 75-25 wins that he needs to significantly cut into Hillary's 195-delegate lead?  What big states is Bernie going to win?  New York is Hillary's home state, she will beat Sanders by 80-20 there with the support of all of NYC.  Illinois and Michicgan's demographics are similar to SC on the Democratic side.  California and Florida's are similar to Texas.  Bernie almost certainly needs to score knockout punches on Hillary in most of the big states but other than Pennsylvania and Ohio, most of them look similar to states that Sanders has already not only lost but lost by impossibly wide margins.

This is why Hillary not only did as well as expected but far exceeded expectations tonight.  Her tiny victory in Massachusetts is nowhere near as consequential as the fact that she beat Sanders 65 to 33 in Texas.  Those results tell us that Maine will probably go for Sanders but California and Florida will probably go for Clinton.  And unless Bernie can change that, it's game over.

I am not gonna respond to your arguments for obvious reasons

My point is you are making as ridiculous a claim as Illinois & Michigan has the same demographics as South Carolina, you are making an INSANELY stupid argument. Go check the data before making assertions
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Shadows
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Posts: 4,956
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2016, 04:28:26 AM »

I also don't understand where is this ridiculous under-perform Obama thing is coming.Stupid logic. Obama's black votes are going entirely to Clinton, Obama won overall by 100+ Delegates & Obama did have significant Dem Support.

I did not see any results from MN or CO showing a Sanders win - The last 2 caucuses Sanders lost despite having a good chance of victory. MA Polls - Clinton was leading 5-7% in most polls recently conducted.

I was certainly surprised by almost 20% victory in MN, CO & 10 points in OK. Sanders significantly out-performed in CO, OK, MN but I think Alabama was a disaster & Texas-Virginia, etc should have been a bit better & would have given him 30 odd delegates (60 swing possibly).

Hillary did better in the Confederacy than expected but this is VERY BAD NEWS for the general as all these states will be Red States for sure.

So far, Hillary has won 3 swing states (VA/IA/NV) and Bernie has won 2 (NH/CO). Really not sure where this talking point comes from.


Battle-ground states

MN - Bernie winning around 23% Now
COLO - Bernie winning around 19% NOW
NH - Bernie wins 22%

Iowa - Hillary won by 0.2%
Nevada - Hillary winning by 5.5%

Looking at this, it does not seem Hillary is doing very well is Swing States
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Shadows
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,956
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2016, 07:17:34 AM »

I also don't understand where is this ridiculous under-perform Obama thing is coming.Stupid logic. Obama's black votes are going entirely to Clinton, Obama won overall by 100+ Delegates & Obama did have significant Dem Support.

I did not see any results from MN or CO showing a Sanders win - The last 2 caucuses Sanders lost despite having a good chance of victory. MA Polls - Clinton was leading 5-7% in most polls recently conducted.

I was certainly surprised by almost 20% victory in MN, CO & 10 points in OK. Sanders significantly out-performed in CO, OK, MN but I think Alabama was a disaster & Texas-Virginia, etc should have been a bit better & would have given him 30 odd delegates (60 swing possibly).

Hillary did better in the Confederacy than expected but this is VERY BAD NEWS for the general as all these states will be Red States for sure.

So far, Hillary has won 3 swing states (VA/IA/NV) and Bernie has won 2 (NH/CO). Really not sure where this talking point comes from.


Battle-ground states

MN - Bernie winning around 23% Now
COLO - Bernie winning around 19% NOW
NH - Bernie wins 22%

Iowa - Hillary won by 0.2%
Nevada - Hillary winning by 5.5%

Looking at this, it does not seem Hillary is doing very well is Swing States

Minnesota isn't a swing state.
And you conveniently forgot Virginia where your idol got his ass kicked.

Minnesota is - 5 out of the 8 Districts in the House is the Reps. In the general the Dems have got from 47 to 52 % Votes - It has always been a narrow victory & could flip anytime with a strong candidate.

Virginia is a swing yes, you are right!
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