The absentee/early vote thread

[psychprofessor]

In Miami-Dade county Early/Absentee voting has nearly equaled the total Early/Absentee vote in 2012 with a week yet to go..

https://twitter.com/MDCElections?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Vote by Mail:

2012: 244K
2016: 222K

In Person Early

2012: 235K
2016: 239K

Yes, Steve Schale just tweeted that Palm Beach, Broward and Dade surpassed the 1 million mark in VBM and EIP today. Big numbers. Also, Hispanics make up 13.5%, so far, of all early votes. That's another good number for Clinton.

[psychprofessor]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

At this point 4 years ago in Florida, it had two weekends of early vote and STTP. This year it's been only one so far.

Also, look at where the early vote is coming from and the partisan breakdown.

[psychprofessor]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

At this point 4 years ago Florida, had two weekends of early vote and STTP. This year it's been only one so far.

Aha, there's the fallacy I was looking for. So we just need to keep an eye on the numbers day to day, then, see if the numbers get restored by ED. Thanks!

And as Steve Schale reminds everyone, the Hispanic number is usually underrepresented since there are a portion of Latino's who self-ID as white. Also look at the no affiliation numbers...off the charts so far. Further, Dems are recruiting more unlikely voters than Reps are...it looks close but I think the demographics favor Clinton.

[psychprofessor]

This has been the best thread on this subforum all election. I'm having a ton of fun sifting through all the numbers with y'all without (too much of) the craziness from elsewhere. Let's go out with a bang, eh? Don't get to do this again for a while.

I know, me too. This is the best thread on the forum page :-)

[psychprofessor]

Steve Schale: Hillsborough had big day of VBM + EV. Over 25k.  Biggest day since mid-week last week

[psychprofessor]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

What is he trying to say? I have no idea why he needs to be so pithy about this.

By 6pm the same amt of people had voted - and that was a "bad" day for Dems yesterday. He mentioned that at the same point 4 years ago he expected today's numbers to be worse for Dems today but I guess they aren't.

[psychprofessor]

Advantage Trump - NC, OH, IA, FL, AZ*
Advantage Clinton - CO, NV

* Clinton does better than Obama in AZ but not good enough to flip the state.

After looking at the demographic breakdown of the Florida early vote and that computer model, Florida is no better than a tossup for Trump

Florida and NC are open to interpretation..my opinion is that Hillary is slightly ahead in FL and growing.

I would add advantage Hillary for WI and VA as well.

[psychprofessor]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith
Turnout in Florida across all race/ethnicity is up relative to 2012, 8 days out:
Black up 49%
Hispanic up 152%
White up 72%

@paulythegun

[psychprofessor]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith
Turnout in Florida across all race/ethnicity is up relative to 2012, 8 days out:
Black up 49%
Hispanic up 152%
White up 72%

@paulythegun

please no more florida in the bag for trump with this huge surfe in latino turnout

[psychprofessor]

Do people really think that Hillary is in danger of losing Wisconsin? If Marquette somehow shows a tied race or Trump ahead, then there might be cause for concern, but it seems like all the talk about Wisconsin being winnable for Trump has been just that, talk. Polls have consistently had Hillary ahead, and these early votes don't suggest a strong R trend in the state.

charles franklin, the marquette pollster director has a very stringent LV screen; combined with polling at the height of comey-gate i wouldn't be surprised with a close tesult. i wonder what he finds with the early vote?

[psychprofessor]

as i said.

black is up...all others are even more up.

but the end result is the same. if white voters are an increased share of the electorate, Trump benefits bigly.

but they won't be...white share of the florida electorate modeled to be 2-3% less than 2012.

[psychprofessor]

as i said.

black is up...all others are even more up.

but the end result is the same. if white voters are an increased share of the electorate, Trump benefits bigly.

but they won't be...white share of the florida electorate modeled to be 2-3% less than 2012.

Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@MichaelWLemme @stevandrews @EsotericCD @FingerootB @KFILE won't be more than 3. Was 67. I think 65 is probably best case & very good

this is in relation to what share the white electorate in florida will be

[psychprofessor]

just wanted to mention that my parents recently moved to florida and early voted for hillary. they went to her rally tonight in broward county and my dad was interviewed on tv about voting for hillary..very proud son here!