Morning Consult nat.:D: Clinton 48% Sanders 40%; R: Trump 42% Cruz 23% Rubio 12% (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 15, 2024, 03:15:55 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  Morning Consult nat.:D: Clinton 48% Sanders 40%; R: Trump 42% Cruz 23% Rubio 12% (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Morning Consult nat.:D: Clinton 48% Sanders 40%; R: Trump 42% Cruz 23% Rubio 12%  (Read 1263 times)
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


« on: March 14, 2016, 09:46:11 PM »

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

Huh

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

Were it not for the superdelegates, it appears Bernie would be catching her quickly and this race would be far from "called" already on the Democrats side. She is doing well, yes, but Bernie is going uphill every single primary election day that comes around. Again, I'm not trying to pick sides here because I could frankly worry less as I clearly won't affiliate with the party come 2016, just mentioning observations.

She most certainly does have the upper hand regardless, just saying it's not completely fair to discredit the campaigns uphill fight these past few months. It's blown up from a "joke" developed by some hippies into an actually full blown competitive campaign pushing Hillary to play ball.

Probably after tomorrow night, regardless of the horserace wins and losses, Hillary approaches or surpasses a 300 pledged delegate lead and a 700 pledged with super delegate lead. That is extremely difficult to overcome in a proportional allocation system. Even in Bernie's best caucus states, the delegates are so few that 60/40 wins won't cut it. He would need 80/20 wins plus big upsets in NY, CA, PA and NJ.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2016, 08:32:07 AM »

Sanders isn't going away yet Hillary trolls.

Yeah, we're aware that he's too selfish to end his vanity campaign and let the party united behind the inevitable nominee.

To be fair to ProgCanadian..

the only inevitability about Clinton is how rigged the delegate system is in her favor. If this weren't the case, the Clinton camp would be sh[it]ting bricks about the current momentum of Bernie.

Huh

How is the delegate system rigged in her favor?! She's crushing him in the popular vote and crushing him with pledged delegates.

Were it not for the superdelegates, it appears Bernie would be catching her quickly and this race would be far from "called" already on the Democrats side. She is doing well, yes, but Bernie is going uphill every single primary election day that comes around. Again, I'm not trying to pick sides here because I could frankly worry less as I clearly won't affiliate with the party come 2016, just mentioning observations.

She most certainly does have the upper hand regardless, just saying it's not completely fair to discredit the campaigns uphill fight these past few months. It's blown up from a "joke" developed by some hippies into an actually full blown competitive campaign pushing Hillary to play ball.

I think you may be confused. Hillary's delegate advantage is extremely strong even without the superdelegates.

Wow a two hundred delegate lead how can he ever overcome that....oh wait California has over 500. Her lead isn't as big as it's perceived to be.

Two words: proportional allocation. If some states were winner take all, you'd have a point.

IIRC, Obama never led Hillary by more than 150 or so delegates.

I get that it's proportional but when more than half the states haven't voted yet it's hard to declare a winner. Especially when Bernie has the Big MO.

This is just a really basic misunderstanding of the proportional allocation. Take Ohio for example, it awards delegates proportionally, but certain congressional districts have more delegates available. This usually happens in more urban, typically larger AA or Hispanic districts. In Ohio, this is CD 11  - a huge AA population. Sanders can win the state narrowly and get awarded +2 delegates for a statewide win, but Clinton can win CD11 and win more delegates overall because that district has 17 delegates up for grabs. Now think about California, let's assume Sanders wins the state, there will be certain AA and Hispanic districts that Hillary dominates in - even if Sanders goes on for a statewide win. Let me point to 2008 - Hillary won the state by approximately 10% and over 500k votes, but still only managed to net about 35 delegates. For Sanders to start making up 300+ delegate deficits, he would need a 65/35 or even a 70/30 win in California and blow outs in certain congressional districts...this is why Ice Spear and others point to the fact that proportional allocation really hurts Sanders the more he trails. At a certain point he won't be able to realistically accrue enough delegates.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 13 queries.