Neil Gorsuch Confirmation Process Discussion (confirmed 54-45)

[Heisenberg]

Casey and Brown are both no's.

Very good! Great pickup opportunities in 2018!

Brown should be attacked on this. He's unapologetically pro-choice and anti-gun in a big pro-life and pro-2nd Amendment state. Also, he opposed Gorsuch since almost immediately after he was announced.

[Heisenberg]

Schumer says he has enough Democrats to prevent 60 votes on Gorsuch (meaning fewer than 8 Democratic defections). However, Politico's count has 13 Democrats that are either undecided or have not announced their intentions:

Tim Kaine (Up for reelection in 2018)
Joe Manchin (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Jon Tester (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Michael Bennett
Amy Klobuchar (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Angus King (Up for reelection in 2018)
Claire McCaskill (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Mark Warner
Chris Coons
Maggie Hassan
Joe Donnelly (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Bill Nelson (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Heidi Heitkamp (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/gorsuch-democrats-supreme-court-236384

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/3/24/1647085/-Schumer-says-he-has-votes-to-filibuster-Gorsuch-but-at-least-13-Dem-senators-remain-on-the-fence

Quick correction: Trump lost Minnesota, but it was close, and I think will be more competitive in the future. (I don't really think Klobuchar is an any danger, as much as I think she's overrated.)

[Heisenberg]

Question: if Garland doesn't have 60 votes, and the Mitch decides to use nuclear option, will he need 50+Pence or 51 votes? When Reid did it, he had 52 votes so this wasn't in question.

Gorsuch, not Garland.

[Heisenberg]

So that's 35 Democrats supporting a filibuster, and 2 against. That leaves 11 Undecided/Unknown on cloture, 6 of whom would be needed to get to 60 votes. These 11 (including King) are:

Michael Bennet (CO)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
Benjamin Cardin (MD)
Christopher Coons (DE)
Joe Donnelly (IN)
Dianne Feinstein (CA)
Angus King (ME)
Patrick Leahy (VT)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Robert Menendez (NJ)
Jon Tester (MT)
Mark Warner (VA)

Path of least resistance here is probably King, Tester, Donnelly, Warner, Bennet, and a wildcard (Feintstein, Leahy, no idea).

My prediction is that King, Donnelly, and Bennet also vote for cloture, with an overall vote of 57-43.

Err...Brown was one of the first to call for a filibuster of Gorsuch and McCaskill is on record as supporting one.

Oh yeah I made the post after saying McCaskill was a NO, but forgot to take out her name from the list I copied. Has Brown specifically called for a fillibuster? He's still on undecided list at The Washington Post.

Well, Brown tweeted his opposition to Gorsuch within 15 minutes of his nomination, so I'd assume he'll vote against cloture. Plus, Brown is of the more progressive wing, and is solidly pro-abortion and anti-gun. So why would he support Gorsuch?