Yeah I'm aware of 2002, but everything went wrong for the GOP that year - the TennCare disaster, Sundquist's unpopularity, Bredesen's reputation as a moderate Democrat, the state income tax, etc. And needless to say, the state was much less Republican and polarized back then. I know it's an open seat, but I don't expect the Democrats to win this race in the end. Dean could easily crack 40% if the Rs nominate someone like Blackburn, though, and there will probably be polls showing a close race.
But I agree that there's nowhere to go but up for TN Dems. 
Yeah, as recently as 2008 there was lots of residual Blue Dog strength in rural western and central Tennessee, but now that's all gone. Blackburn is probably staying in the House and climbing up the leadership ladder. Only DesJarlais would make the race a tossup, IMO.
