IN-SEN: Brooks Out

[Heisenberg]

Not surprising, she got a decent spot in the House as Ethics Cop, and her colleague Luke Messer has already laid the foundation for a run. I've been reading on DKE and RRH for some time that Messer is already telling supporters in private that he'll run, and will make it official later.

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/behind-closed-doors/2017/01/31/brooks-wont-challenge-donnelly-us-senate-seat/97282986/

[Heisenberg]

What's with people thinking Brooks is stronger than Messer? I think they're about equal.

Unless Greg Ballard or Mitch Daniels runs, I rate this Tilt/Lean D.

No way. Even with Mourdock's rape gaffe Donnelly barely got 50%, and polling shows he's relatively anonymous in the state. Todd Young won by 10 points, more than expected, and Holcomb won the governorship in what I think was an upset. I think the state has a solid ground game, and with Pence as VP, he will do anything and everything to win back that seat for his party. If Republicans can only flip one seat next year, it would be this one, I think.

[Heisenberg]

As someone in Brooks' district with relative amounts of respect for her, I'm happy she will stay in the house, partially because I recognize the fact that she would most likely be the favorite against Donnelly. But to be honest at this point it's very challenging to evaluate since we don't even know the candidates, but I'd think it's basically a toss-up against Rotika, Messer or whichever House Republican they would nominate. I know plenty of Republicans who have respect for Donnelly and would vote for him, so I don't think him getting some crossover appeal is too hard to imagine.

I suspect many would be like me: I respect him and agree with him on some things, but I'd rather have a Republican since he's still a vote for Schumer and all the liberals to chair the committees.