FL-SEN 2018: Scott likely to run against Nelson

[Heisenberg]

Ileana Ros-Lehtinehen, Carlos Curbelo, or even David Jolly are the best potential Republicans for this seat. CLC is okay.

Tom Rooney and Ron DeSantis are other strong potential candidates. Both are strong fundraisers, more charismatic, and less polarizing. IRL is not leaving the House, she's more powerful as a Congresswoman than she'll ever be as a Senator this late into her career. But it looks like Scott will get the primary all to himself, though I'm fine with that.

[Heisenberg]

In this scenario, Nelson is likely to win high single to double digits.

That could happen, but I doubt Scott will lose in a huge landslide. It should be a relatively competitive race and I have a gut feeling that whoever wins it will do so with a margin of 1% or less. Don't underestimate how many John Morgan/Rick Scott voters there could be.

Agree 100%.