MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[Heisenberg]

With Gianforte likely to win the special election for the House, he could likely be a main contender for Governor in 2020. And with Zinke gone as the senate candidate against Tester in 2018, and no other republican set to take his place, this is likely Tim Fox's best opportunity. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes for it. Tester vs Fox would be a toss up in my opinion.

Yeah, I agree with this. IMO Fox should go for it. It will be a Tossup, but it's not as if he would have an easy time winning a gubernatorial race in 2020 either.  

If Fox doesn't run, Buttrey would also be okay. Even Scott Sales would be acceptable if the alternative is O'Neill, Stapleton or Rosendale.

RRH is really only O'Neill's pipe, talking about he would be the best candidate EVAR!!1! Is he actually not that great?

Still think Fox is the top recruit here, but I sense he'd prefer to be Gov

Governor would lead to a tough primary against Gianforte, and maybe at least one other row officer/state legislator.

One downside to Fox running is if he wins he hands Democrats the State AG spot (easily the most partisan row office), and it creates another Democratic rising star who could go for Governor or Senate in 2024 (assuming he/she wins in 2020). It seems to be pretty tough to knock off an incumbent row officer in Montana, right?

My choice would be Buttrey.

[Heisenberg]

If it's not Tim Fox, then who? Corey Stapleton? Matthew Rosendale?

Rosendale is generally considered to be the strongest of the non-Fox row officers, and some National Republicans have described him as their "backup."

[Heisenberg]

I'm still convinced Fox runs for (and wins) Governor in 2020

I think he may wait to see how next week's special election turns out. Some believe Gianforte is using the House seat as a stepping stone to run for Governor. If Gianforte wins the special election, Tim Fox may not want to challenge him in a primary and may decide running for Senate is a better bet.

Not a bad theory.

I think that's true.

If this all plays out, the House seat becomes open yet again in 2020. I think the frontrunners become Rosendale, Buttrey, and Sales. In a three-way primary I'm not sure who has the advantage. Rosendale would get eastern Montana all to himself, but he and Sales would probably divide the more conservative vote, while Buttrey is the most moderate of the three, generally. Sales, however, is from Gallatin County, where both Daines and GF are from, so that could help him, depending on how influential they are and if they both endorse him.

[Heisenberg]

Also:

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http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/06/10/gop-senate-hopeful-makes-trip-washington/385328001/

I like both Rosendale and Olszewski, actually.

I'm liking Olszewski more and more, actually, but I wish GF steps down, and Olszewski runs for the House seat. His hometown of Kalispell would go in a western MT-01 if it gets two seats, and, as an incumbent when they split the state, he could actually hold on. Rosendale is better for Senate since he already has statewide recognition, and, nothing beats the drone ad.

[Heisenberg]

More news:

http://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/republicans-are-already-lining-up-to-challenge-tester/article_71bbba95-431e-5055-9fed-5d3f63ac7f31.html

[quote]Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale kept a close eye on Senate prospects. Rosendale hasn’t said whether he will run for U.S. Senate. Asked by The Gazette on May 31 if he would run for federal office, Rosendale said he would first focus on any insurance changes brought about by the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, and then decide.[quote]

The article says there's the potential for a crowded primary. Other people mentioned are "some dudes" named Kurt Allen Cole and Scott Roy McLean.

[Heisenberg]

Also:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2017/06/10/gop-senate-hopeful-makes-trip-washington/385328001/

I like both Rosendale and Olszewski, actually.

I'm liking Olszewski more and more, actually, but I wish GF steps down, and Olszewski runs for the House seat. His hometown of Kalispell would go in a western MT-01 if it gets two seats, and, as an incumbent when they split the state, he could actually hold on. Rosendale is better for Senate since he already has statewide recognition, and, nothing beats the drone ad.

Is MT still likely for a 2nd seat?

Montana was seen as likely for a second seat early in the decade (2011, 12) but then by the middle of the decade, it was seen as less likely. Now, it looks like a second seat may actually happen. According to Muon's projections IIRC, MT-02 moved up to seat 438 or something last year; the year before it wasn't on the first 440. It'll be very close, I really hope it gets the seat back, MT-01 would be a fun district.

[Heisenberg]

Fagg is exploring.

http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/sitting-billings-judge-forms-exploratory-committee-to-seek-senate-seat/article_c1511642-2f3a-5b6d-9544-1256cafc1582.html

No surprise. Obviously don't want to get ahead of myself here, but right now I don't see a path to victory for him in the GOP primary if he jumps in. Olszewski is more likely to be backed by the GOP establishment (unless someone like Rosendale runs, but I wouldn't count on it) and Downing will run as Gianforte 2.0 and try to tap into the Trumpist voting base, which leaves little room for a district court judge.

I can't really see Downing getting the "Trumpist" base, I found out hat during the election season, he tweeted negatively about Trump a lot.
Is it now looking unlikely that Rosendale runs?

[Heisenberg]

I can't really see Downing getting the "Trumpist" base, I found out hat during the election season, he tweeted negatively about Trump a lot.

Yes he did, but Gianforte was very reluctant to support Trump back in 2016 as well (granted, not to this extent, but still...) and look how that turned out in the end. Also, Downing is a close friend of Zinke (much like Gianforte and Daines have known each other for a long time now), so him winning the nomination is not that far-fetched. There is a path for him if Rosendale and Stapleton don't run, and he has that entire "outsider" thing going for him.

Whoever wins the Republican primary will have to find a way to strike the right balance. Distancing oneself from Trump or "unendorsing" him (assuming he is unpopular) would definitely backfire, but embracing his entire agenda might alienate some moderates who are more likely to vote for Tester in the end. It’s a risky trade-off, especially since MT is nowhere near as Trumpist as some of these other battleground states and Republicans have little room for error if they want to win a statewide or Senate race. Gianforte did a fairly good job in the special election: He campaigned as a Trump supporter, but made his entire campaign more about "being an Independent voice for MT who will drain the swamp" and for the most part made it clear where he differed from Trump and where he didn't. You have to come across as authentic to the average voter in some way.

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I'm not sure, honestly. Like I said, I wouldn't count on it.

Okay, thanks! Also, Gallatin County has quickly turned into a monstrous powerhouse within the MT GOP. Daines and Gianforte are both from there, as is Downing. Do you think Tester may make that an issue (one county controlling the whole delegation) or do I read too much into these things (I kind of prefer geographic diversity)?

[Heisenberg]

Is he a good candidate?

I would say so. He sounds like one who really wants to run, has already won statewide, and is pretty popular in Eastern Montana. I really like him. Also, the drone as is so Montana.

[Heisenberg]

If Rosendale doesn't run, Tester is about as Safe as Kaine (i.e. could go down if everything goes sour for Dems, but will be fine otherwise)

No, these races aren't even comparable, and Tester is nowhere near as safe as Kaine (who wouldn't even go down in a GOP wave, btw). Geez.

I clearly view Kaine on a different level than you do.

The only way Kaine doesn't win reelection is him either losing the primary or dropping out unexpectedly. This is his seat as long as he wants it, NOVA isn't trending back to the right, and Kaine also did well in the Richmond suburbs last year as Clinton's running mate. Those two areas alone should be too much for any Republican, even a very popular, moderate, competent one in a strong R wave.

[Heisenberg]

Rosendale and Arntzen decline pay increase.

[Heisenberg]

He's in.

Is he a good candidate that could win this?

I'd say so. He's the best candidate other Zinke and even Fox, IMO.
Also, I hope he wins his primary and does it fairly easily, I'm worried hat the primary will be nasty and divisive, and could damage the candidate for the general election.

[Heisenberg]

He's in.

Is he a good candidate that could win this?

He could definitely win, but I'd say he starts as a slight underdog (right now this is probably toss-up tilt-D).  Despite what TNVolunteer and possibly Heisenberg will claim, the general consensus is that neither candidate is gonna win by more than 3-5 points at most (in fact, it'll probably be a 1-3% race no matter who wins).

Huh? The part about the state being extremely polarized and the race being super close and coming down to the wire is exactly what he and I say.

[Heisenberg]

Downing charged with violating Montana's hunting license laws, pleads not guilty.

[Heisenberg]

Zinke under investigation for use of private jets.

Will he resign so fast like Tom Price that he could run against Tester? Discuss.

LOL. If he did, that scandal would probably damage him.

[Heisenberg]

Licensegate: Troy Downing's hearings (over illegally buying and transferring hunting licenses) to begin November 15.

[Heisenberg]

More Licensegate: Candidate Troy Downing (R-San Diego) claims a California home as his primary residence, and receives tax breaks there.

[Heisenberg]

On Decision Desk, 96.26% reporting.
Matt Rosendale   193,479   48.90%   
Jon Tester (inc)   190,809   48.22%

Park County (all), Yellowstone (3 precincts), Gallatin (1 precinct), Cascade (2 precincts) withstanding