Rod Blum campaign poll shows him up 16 points

[Heisenberg]

I think Blum overperforms Trump by about 6-8 points, which is enough to win. I think Clinton wins this district by only 3.

[Heisenberg]

This makes me so mad at stupid Patrick Murphy, who blew this seat for Democrats in 2014.  Once Republucans pick up swing seats, they are very difficult to dislodge, unlike Democrats, who don't seem to know how to properly use the advantages of incumbency to get re-elected.  

If he won that would have meant two Democratic Congressmen named Patrick Murphy (from swing seats). There also used to be another one, from PA-08 not too long ago.

[Heisenberg]

This makes me so mad at stupid Patrick Murphy, who blew this seat for Democrats in 2014.  Once Republucans pick up swing seats, they are very difficult to dislodge, unlike Democrats, who don't seem to know how to properly use the advantages of incumbency to get re-elected.  

If he won that would have meant two Democratic Congressmen named Patrick Murphy (from swing seats). There also used to be another one, from PA-08 not too long ago.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Murphy_(Pennsylvania_politician)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Murphy_(Florida_politician)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Murphy_(Iowa_politician)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_O._Murphy (Massachusetts)

Didn't know about the one in Massachusetts. Tsongas is 70, so she is on retirement watch. I expect her to serve out a few more terms, but when she retires, the 34-year old Massachusetts Patrick Murphy, who lost to her in a Demcratic primary may try again. If the four coexisted in Congress together, that would have been funny.

[Heisenberg]

If Vernon loses, I expect Pat Murphy will run in 2018 or 2020.

Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania may run for Congress again, or he may remain Secretary of the Army/become Secretary of Defense.

I wouldn't mind the four Patrick Murphys coexist in Congress. That would be funny.