FL-PPP (2018): Nelson beats Scott by 4

[Heisenberg]

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.

Very true. A strong candidate like Tom Rooney or Jeff Atwater would beat him.

[Heisenberg]

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.

Very true. A strong candidate like Tom Rooney or Jeff Atwater would beat him.

Not to mention his last two elections were Democrat waves: 2006, 2012

Connie Mack IV is the perfect example of a "seemingly strong but actually weak" opponent. On paper he was the perfect candidate, but in reality he turned out to be deeply flawed and incompetent. His 2006 opponent (in an even bigger wave than 2012), Katherine Harris was also a very controversial figure, while popular with her base she was deeply unpopular with many swing voters and Democrats in the anti-Bush year of 2006 due to her role in the controversial recount. In addition to the two I first mentioned, David Jolly and Carlos Curbelo are also good candidates (if they win reelection).

[Heisenberg]

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.

Very true. A strong candidate like Tom Rooney or Jeff Atwater would beat him.

Not to mention his last two elections were Democrat waves: 2006, 2012

Unless Ron DeSantis runs, I can't see anyone beating Nelson.

Totally forgot about DeSantis for a bit. He is another strong candidate, and a great fundraiser. But I also heard rumors that he is thinking about running for Attorney General. It seems like Rick Scott is really trying to get the field cleared for him to run in 2018, ugh. When his term expires, I think he should go back to the private sector, where he belongs.

[Heisenberg]

I'm a bit worried about this seat, but I think Rick Scott is really quite none.  I never understood his appeal.  The Rs should go with -- hmm, maybe Florida Republicans don't have that much of a bench after all?

Congressmen Tom Rooney and Ron DeSantis are strong candidates. So is CFO Jeff Atwater. David Jolly and Carlos Curbelo are other possibilities, but first they have to win reelection in their tough seats.