WI-08: Gallagher has a 16-point lead over Nelson (Public Opinion Strategies)

[Heisenberg]

It's early, and internal, and has Gallagher up in name recognition. It will tighten, but I think they're trying to change the narrative from "this is a pure tossup to this race leans, or at least tilts, Republican." I personally rate this Lean R. They also had Trump up 3 points against Clinton (still within the margin of error). 40% for Trump, 37% for Clinton, the rest either undecided or for another candidate.

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/local/2016/08/23/poll-gallagher-has-early-lead-over-nelson/89215636/
(Fixed link)

[Heisenberg]

I never had this down as a Dem pickup.  Even when Dems do pick this seat up, they only ever hold it for a term or two before losing it again.

I agree that if Dems do pick this one up, they'll likely lose it. Romney narrowly carried it in 2012 IIRC (maybe Ryan helped a bit, but I highly doubt it since he's not from there). I have seen some people on this board (check the House predictions thread) say that they think it flips, but I really don't think it will. Democrats have better seats to go after.