Possibly 2020, however that will depend whether Inslee runs again, and who the GOP nominates. I will say by 2032 but who knows. The problem for the GOP is Governors elections are held in Presidential years, and the electorate is so polarized that it is difficult to get large swings.
That's a good point about WA governor elections being held in Presidential election years.
Concerning the two sort of recent governor elections then: do you all think Rossi could have beat Gregoire, and could McKenna have beat Inslee if those contests weren't in Presidential election years?
In 2010 Rossi probably wins, I would say by 2-4 points
In 2014 McKenna would win an open seat narrowly by 1-2 points. However I don't think Bryant would win in 2014.
I agree.
Back to the original question: The GOP may get lucky and have a race like the treasurer race (R vs R).
It will be competitive if McKenna runs again. Otherwise, Jaime Beutler, Cathy Rodgers, Kim Wyman, and Hans Zeiger seem like their best hope for the foreseeable future.
To answer the OP question, maybe as early as 2020. To answer the thread question, I'd say 2028 at the latest.
Dave Reichert is another good statewide candidate, and maybe the winner of the treasurer race. I doubt am amortize Rodgers runs statewide given her House seniority. I know that's not unprecedented (Trent Lott, Roy Blunt), but they were in Republican-leaning states, unlike Rodgers.
