How many more national elections until Democratic fatigue?

[Heisenberg]

I can't see the victor 2016 winning 2020.

Same, I think Hillary, if elected, will lose in 2020 following a midterm wave. With regards to Senate seats, I think Tillis and Gardner are the two most vulnerable Senators up for reelection that cycle. It seems like demographics will catch up, and it's possible (even likely) that the Millennials will remain loyal left wing Democrats for the rest of their lives, barring a 2008-style recession under a Democratic president.

[Heisenberg]

I can't see the victor 2016 winning 2020.

Same, I think Hillary, if elected, will lose in 2020 following a midterm wave. With regards to Senate seats, I think Tillis and Gardner are the two most vulnerable Senators up for reelection that cycle. It seems like demographics will catch up, and it's possible (even likely) that the Millennials will remain loyal left wing Democrats for the rest of their lives, barring a 2008-style recession under a Democratic president.

Tillis-Well if Ross(D) gets elected to the US Senate in 2016 I don't think Tillis will lose. If Ross loses to Burr Tillis probably won't win. I don't think NC wants 2 Dem US Senators.

Gardner-I don't think he is that vulnerable although that could change.

I think the demographic thing is too overblown in Elections except for the Presidential Election which it absolutely killed Republicans in 2012. I think the Republicans will lose in 2016 because the Republicans have a bad candidate toppling over the demographics issue as to why they will lose. Non-Hispanic White Women do not like Trump in a swing state like Colorado for example.

I don't think anybody thinks like this...

Does Iowa "want" 2 Republican Senators?

I agree. Nobody really thinks that way. Tillis strikes me as vulnerable because I hear his approval ratings are very low, and North Carolina will be more Dem-friendly in four years. As for Gardner, he seems inoffensive, but I expect him to face a tough battle. In relative terms, he's the second most vulnerable Republican up in 2020 because the others are all either in Solid R states or super popular and inoffensive (like Susan Collins).