2016 Congressional Primaries

[Heisenberg]

Who is expected to win the CO GOP Primary?  Is it Jerry Eller?

I'm not sure if anybody is expected to win.  The convention is Saturday, and apparently it will narrow the field, but the race hasn't been polled (to my knowledge) and the crowded field will likely hurt the GOP come the general election.
Also, has the Indiana Senate primary been polled? I'd like to see Young win, as he seems more electable, though I will support either him or Stutzman in the general.

[Heisenberg]

About 6900 votes in.  Young up 63.1-36.9.

[Heisenberg]

Trey Hollingsworth is leading rn. He was the guy who had his dad donate to his super pac

Was that race polled?  What were the forecasts?  I'm kind of surprised he's ahead of the sitting AG.

[Heisenberg]

Indianapolis Star says Young wins.

Congratulations Young!

[Heisenberg]

Indianapolis Star says Young wins.

Congratulations Young!

Booooo

... Did you just actually boo a candidate for winning by 15-20%+?

Haters gonna hate I guess.  Glad to see the extreme candidate get knocked out.  Todd Young has beat Baron Hill before.  And I think he can do it again, statewide.

[Heisenberg]

Thank God Young won. Stutzman almost certainly would have lost to that moron Baron Hill.

Absolutely not. Stutzman would've destroyed Baron Hill. This seat is Safe GOP regardless.

No, he would have Akined, and lost the seat just like him.

No he would've Reaganed and landslid Hill. Indiana wants Tea Party Conservatives

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2012

Exactly.  There would've been a strong, fiscally conservative 3rd party candidate who would have sunk Stutzman and allows Hill to win.  Go Young!

[Heisenberg]

Trey Hollingsworth is leading rn. He was the guy who had his dad donate to his super pac

Was that race polled?  What were the forecasts?  I'm kind of surprised he's ahead of the sitting AG.

How exactly did the sitting AG get third in a House primary? He must have run one sh**tty campaign.

He should've just sat out this cycle, raised money and build a campaign for the 2018 Senate Race.  Looks like his carrer is over.  Maybe Ballard will jump in.

[Heisenberg]

Thank God Young won. Stutzman almost certainly would have lost to that moron Baron Hill.

Absolutely not. Stutzman would've destroyed Baron Hill. This seat is Safe GOP regardless.

No, he would have Akined, and lost the seat just like him.

No he would've Reaganed and landslid Hill. Indiana wants Tea Party Conservatives

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2012

Mourdock hung himself on an abortion gaff. Something Stutzman wouldn't have done.

Stutzman is still more extreme.  I really want Republicans to move closer to the center and tone down the rhetoric.  It will really pay off.

[Heisenberg]

By the way, JCL, I have a question. If Indiana wants Tea Party conservatives, then how did Trump and Young win the primaries?

Yeah, tell us.  They don't want Tea Party Conservatives, they tried with Mourdock, and now they're saying "Never again!"

[Heisenberg]

The following primaries are contested:

NE-2 Republican, Libertarian
WV-2 Democratic, Republican

Bacon won the Republican primary in NE-02, and Mooney won in WV-02. The Democratic primary for WV-02 is still very close between Cory Simpson and Mark Hunt. The seat should be Safe R, though.

[Heisenberg]

RIP Chip Maxwell - Don Bacon smashed him in NE-2 by a two to one margin. Bacon strikes me as the more electable candidate, and if this were a normal year I think Ashford loses easily.

Ashford has been doing everything right, including stepping up his fundraising game and not giving Omaha businesses a real reason to be against him. With Trump and presidential turnout, I can still see him holding on. No better than Toss-Up though.

Key words: if this were a normal year. As much as I'd love to see Bacon win, I think Ashford will win this time. If he loses, hopefully Backn runs again in 2018, he'll be the favorite then. (Midterm, no Trump, no Lee Terry controversies, etc.)

[Heisenberg]

NYT just called NC-02 for Holding.

[Heisenberg]

Are any of the new NC districts (other than the Dem-held 1st, 4th, and 12th) competitive? Has Cook released new PVI's for them?

[Heisenberg]

The Republicans are getting a total of 36% of the vote in the California primary, split between 12 candidates, and none of those candidates will be in the general election. What an unbelievably sh**tty system.

No, the emergence of an actual chance to beat Kamala Harris is a fantastic deal for Republicans.

What's so sh**tty about the system is that a Dem vs Dem runoff, combined with presidential level turnout, California's strong Democratic lean, and Trump as the nominee, will likely sink Republican House candidates in swing districts. At least most competitive California House seats seem to already be held by Democrats.

[Heisenberg]

Anything known on the status of Ami Bera? Couldn't find results for his district.

Ahead of Scott Jones 52-48 in primary.

Interesting. I guess (unless Jones attacks him HARD on his troubles) this seat is out of reach for Republicans this year. The NRCC should just not spend money campaign thin Califronia this year, period.

[Heisenberg]

Rest of CA:

29 Slot 2: Alarcon (D)
30 Slot 2: Reed (R)
32 Slot 2: Fisher (R)
37 Slot 2: Wiggins (D)

Next primaries, 6/14: ME, ND, NV, SC, VA. Also DC but there's no mayoral race this year so it's not worth caring about.

It will be fun seeing how VA-02 and NV turn out.

[Heisenberg]

God, I really hope that Heck beats Angle.

[Heisenberg]

VA-02 (R): With 9% in, Forbes has an early lead over Taylor, 48.9-43.6.

[Heisenberg]

60% in VA-4 Scott W. Taylor 52-40.93% over J. Randy Forbes

District 2, not 4. Looks like Forbes is done. I wonder what he'll do next?

[Heisenberg]

AP has called ND Gov for Burgum. What an upset.
Edit: I just saw that former Gov. Ed Schafer endorsed Burgum. I wonder how much that helped?

[Heisenberg]

Rooting for:
NV Sen: Joe Heck (let's go Joe!)
NV-03 R: Michael Roberson (strong recruit, Tarkanian will probably lose as he always does)
NV-04 R: Cresent Hardy (duh)
NV-04 D: Lucy Flores (seems crazy enough to keep Hardy competitive, got destroyed in 2014 LG race)

Just wondering, which major NV-03 Democrat is weakest?

[Heisenberg]

This just goes to show how effective a self funder can be in a cheap media market, wonder if gianforte in Montana could even be considered a favorite

They really need to poll Bullock vs. Gianforte, I really want a poll. I'm surprised no firm has polled it yet.

[Heisenberg]

Heck running away with it.

Only one county is in (Churchill) fully in though.

Where do you get results by county (and precinct, if possible)? I use NYT, and they don't have it.

[Heisenberg]

Heck running away with it.

Only one county is in (Churchill) fully in though.

Where do you get results by county (and precinct, if possible)? I use NYT, and they don't have it.

http://www.nvsos.gov/soselectionpages/results/2016STatewidePrimary/electionindex.aspx

Thank you!

[Heisenberg]

Let's go Joe!