2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[Heisenberg]

Lol Iowa at Safe R

Sorry, but there is zero evidence that suggests that this race is even remotely competitive. Not even the Clinton campaign considers Grassley vulnerable.

The only Democrat who could've made the race competitive is Vilsack, and he declined.

[Heisenberg]

Lol Iowa at Safe R

Sorry, but there is zero evidence that suggests that this race is even remotely competitive. Not even the Clinton campaign considers Grassley vulnerable.

The only Democrat who could've made the race competitive is Vilsack, and he declined.

We can be glad that Grassley is running in Iowa and not New Hampshire

Too bad Ayotte isn't facing a male Democrat. There's no way he'd win women by Climbing Maggie margins.

[Heisenberg]

90% Shading Safe
60% Shading Likely
30% Shading Lean
Green Tossup

 

I'd switch NH and FL.

[Heisenberg]

>60%: Safe
>40%: Likely
>30%: Lean
>20%: Tilt
Green: Toss-up

[Heisenberg]

>90%: Titanium
>60%: Safe
>40%: Likely
>30%: Lean
>20%: Tilt
Green: Toss-up

Changes:
AK: Safe R -> Likely R
AZ: Lean R -> Likely R
FL: Tilt R -> Lean R
IL: Toss-up -> Tilt D
IN: Lean D -> Toss-up
IA: Likely R -> Safe R
MD: Likely D -> Safe D
NV: Toss-up -> Tilt R

Quick edit: Moving Missouri to Tilt R after that poll came out showing him behind. I'll need to see another poll showing Kander ahead to move it to toss-up, but it is very clear that Blunt is in trouble.

[Heisenberg]

>60%: Safe
>40%: Likely
>30%: Lean
>20%: Tilt
Green: Toss-up

Changes:


NC: Tilt R -> Toss-up
OH: Likely R -> Safe R
PA: Toss-up -> Tilt D
WI: Lean D -> Likely D