FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Heisenberg]

Um, maybe it's just me but I think a candidate saying on tape that he hates being in the senate or that he will vote for TRUMP despite the fact that he doesn't trust him with the nuclear football is a bit more devastating politically that arguing semantics about accounting and whether one is a small business "owner" or not.

He's never said on tape that he hates the Senate, to my knowledge. I couldn't find anything to back that up. Of course many things he's said seem to imply that, but explicitly saying he hates it, no.

[Heisenberg]

I'll never understand why people who fail smaller races think they'll do better statewide.

Generally speaking this makes sense, and I'm sure you are right in the sense many candidates wouldn't do better statewide if they failed a smaller races. One candidate I can think of that successfully did this, however, is Maggie Hassan. Hassan lost reelection to her state senate seat in 2010, then successfully ran for governor two years later.

Oh, now you've done it.

Hassan really doesn't fit that description. She was already elected to the seat before. She probably lost only because of the wave. In 2012 she successfully ran for governor, was reelected in 2014, and will likely win the Senate seat this year.

[Heisenberg]

Does anyone else think that TNVolunteer will start ranting conspiracy theory nonsense about 'angry Florida [demographic group]' if Rubio loses the general election?

No. The "angry New Hampshire women" at least have a little evidence of existing (if you look at subgroups in the polls).

[Heisenberg]

The Republican Party should be absolutely ashamed of itself for what it has done to Murphy. How is that remotely acceptable?

Both sides do it, like it or not.

[Heisenberg]

^Murphy is not some unbeatable Titan.

[Heisenberg]

Huckabee wouldn't be able to clear a field of candidates considering he was a politician from Arkansas. Plus, big names in Florida like Adam Putnam and Jeff Atwater are likely planning to run for Governor and could defeat Huckabee.

If Huckabee is actually interested in holding political office in Florida, though, running against Bill Nelson in 2018 for his Senate seat could provide a better opportunity from him. As I mentioned above, a lot of the rising stars in Florida are looking at running for Governor in 2018, so Republicans may be looking for a big name to run against Nelson for the Senate seat. Huckabee could take advantage of that, and with a President Clinton likely being unpopular, maybe he would have a shot at winning (but he'd likely still be the underdog against Nelson).

I can see CLC and/or DeSantis going for the 2018 seat. Rooney may also want to jump in. I wonder how an Atwater vs. Putnam primary would go. It really seems like Putnam is doing all he can to get ahead and jumpstart a campaign, from what I hear.

[Heisenberg]

Rubio won a primary straw poll in Sarasota County. Here's where that county is:




U.S. Senate:
Marco Rubio: 247 (57.4%)
Carlos Beruff: 183 (42.6%)

U.S. Congress (FL-16):
Vern Buchanan (inc.) : 366 (90.4%)
James Satcher: 39 (9.6%)

https://m.facebook.com/notes/republican-party-of-sarasota-rpos/sarasotagop-straw-poll-results/10155010526755278

Seems a tidge underwhelming, but still a comfortable win.

Yikes! I'm going into slight panic mode, especially after having a nightmare last week where Beruff defied all odds and won the primary (not kidding BTW). Is this a particularly strong area for Beruff/weak area for Rubio, Florida people?

[Heisenberg]

Murphy's going dark this week to save fire for Rubio.

He must be very confident then (why would he not, though). I wonder what the (hopeless by now) Grayson camp is doing. Obviously I wish he still pumped out more cash against Grayson, but he's no fool.

[Heisenberg]

Title updated. Thanks FL for sending both Alan Grayson and his wife Dena Grayson back home to cry!!!

Glad to see that people in FL-09 know that socialism is never the answer!

[Heisenberg]

Title updated. Thanks FL for sending both Alan Grayson and his wife Dena Grayson back home to cry!!!

Glad to see that people in FL-09 know that socialism is never the answer!

Alan Grayson did carry his district in the Senate primary, so don't give it too much credit.

Oh right, I forgot. He did do pretty well in his district (but not anywhere else except for a few northern counties LOL). At least the 115th Congress will be Grayson-free.

[Heisenberg]

Professor Wulfric, if Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton had a baby, would said baby be either a socialist, a capitalist, or a mulatto-type kid?

Socialist. He would be Sanders's son and is therefore related to Sanders. Clinton would remain a capitalist as long as she did not marry Sanders.

One person I know had a Maoist uncle. Does that make hi a Maoist? Becuase this line of arguement makes no sense.

Look, in one of Wulfric's earlier posts he clearly said that being related to a socialist doesn't automatically make you one, since it is possible to reject the socialist ideas. However, he also mentioned that the chances of rejecting the ideas are slim, so while people related to socialists are not automatically socialist, there is a high chance they are.

[Heisenberg]

Sorry if this has been addressed, but why did Frankel and Deutch switch districts?

It had to do with the way they were redrawn after the court ordered a mid-decade redistricting.

[Heisenberg]

As much as it pains me to admit, this is probably the right decision.

Gotta put everything we've got into NV, NC, PA, NH and possibly MO.

Feel free to waste money in New Hampshire! You already have it!
Republicans need to jump out of there ASAP.

[Heisenberg]

As much as it pains me to admit, this is probably the right decision.

Gotta put everything we've got into NV, NC, PA, NH and possibly MO.

Masto's lost at this point too.

IN or even LA (assuming Campbell pulls through and it isn't D v D...still a far far longshot though] on the other hand....

I wish Masto was lost at this point, but the race is not still competitive.
In Louisiana, Campbell and Fayard are equally strong candidates. But they need to have David Duke or Rob Maness as their opponent to win a D vs R runoff, I think.

Edit: Fixed error.

[Heisenberg]

So... as someone who doesn't know much about political geography in Florida:

Do we expect Rubio to actually carry Miami-Dade County, or just over-perform there relative to Trump while still losing it?

In 2004, Mel Martinez got 49% statewide and in Dade County; in 2010, Rubio repeated the 49% statewide, but got only 45% in Dade. I think if Rubio wins in the high single digits over Murphy (7-8 points or greater), he should win Dade; it seems that his victory will be a little weaker than that, so Murphy will probably be able to narrowly carry the county, unless Rubio has actually gained Hispanic voters since 2010, which seems unlikely what with his Trump endorsement, but possible considering what a comically inept, scandalous candidate Murphy is. Still pretty amazing considering Clinton is winning the county by around 2:1 or so.

yeah... no. The polls are narrow enough to where Nevada's beautiful trend will put Masto narrowly over the line.

I don't know if "trend" is the right word to use here (NV trended right in 2012, and it seems very difficult to deny that it will trend right again in 2016, unless polls are wrong by significantly more than the historical norm), but it's true that it seems Heck's lead is narrow enough that typical undecided break/polling inaccuracy in Nevada should give this one to Masto.

Also, in 2010, while Crist ran left of the center on plenty of issues and was seen as close to Obama (as well as an aide leaking days before the election that he would caucus as a Democrat if elected), I think that since Crist was a Republican his entire life until the last few months before the election, it's fair to say that some of his votes would have gone to Rubio in a two-way race. Also, Kendrick Meek was a weak recruit, he never faced a Republican or third party challenger while in his D+34 House seat, often running unopposed or with just token write-in opposition, which meant he never really had much skill fundraising or campaigning. Rubio therefore has the distinction of being the only Republican he's ever faced in an election in his entire career in Congressional politics.

[Heisenberg]

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/784474681537662978

Bye-bye, Patrick!

Yes! So long, Fratrick Murphy!

[Heisenberg]

DSCC gone from FL. https://twitter.com/ByKristenMClark/status/788411152187482113

Woo hoo!