FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Heisenberg]

Now a McConnell PAC says they probably won't invest unless Rubio runs. If I thought Rubio knew anything about strategy, I'd wonder if CLC was a placeholder - but I don't think he knows anything about strategery.

I guess they're looking at OH, PA, and NV?

[Heisenberg]

I think Rubio would be favored if he ran for reelection from the get-go, and never ran for president. But if he jumps back in, I'd say only 50-50. The fact that he was originally against running for reelection after dropping it would hurt him if he jumped back in.

[Heisenberg]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

Fair enough.

I agree. Putnam will, in all likelihood be the next Governor of Florida.

[Heisenberg]

I would not be too surprised if this turns into a repeat of 1986/1988, where going into the 1986 election, Republicans held the Class 3 seat and Democrats held the Class 1 seat, and then, two years later, it was reversed.

[Heisenberg]

Jolly says all signs are pointing to him running again

YEEEEEEEESSS!!!!!!!

Rubio's gonna lose to Murphy, you know that, right?

Rubio was shown to consistently lead Murphy, who is vastly overrated. And what's to say that Grayson won't win the primary?

I agree. Also, I know Jolly says he'll drop out if Rubio jumps in. What about DeSantis and CLC?

[Heisenberg]

About two weeks ago, former Congressional and Senate candidate Dan Bongino from Maryland was in FL-22 talking about a possible campaign for Congress in FL-18. Now he suddenly has decided to run for Clawson's seat on the west coast. He's been in Florida for like less than a year. Carpetbagging POS.

Any good Republican candidates for FL-18? It's a rare pickup opportunity for the GOP this year, but I think there's a ton of people running. Since you seem to know a lot, who do you think will get the nomination? And how do you rate the general?

Also, the GOP really, really, REALLY needs to coalesce around one of the three establishment candidates if Rubio doesn't jump back in. They can't afford to let Beruff win the nomination and blow this seat.

[Heisenberg]

Congrats, Democrats!

The last hope is that of Jolly, DeSantis, and CLC, only one stays in, and the other two drop out. I really don't know which of the three is strongest, they all have their strengths and weaknesses.

[Heisenberg]

Murphy allegedly traded donations for favors.

He also misstated his CPA experience, according to a report.

[Heisenberg]

Isn't the House seat Crist is running for a safe D seat? Why would Jolly volunteer to be slaughtered there?

Obama '12 carried it 54.6-43.9. That might seem like a lot, but Curbelo's district, which is considered to be competitive, is Obama '12 55.4-43.9. So while Crist would probably be a favorite given that he carried Pinellas County, which is where the district is, as a republican, as a democrat, and as an independent, it wouldn't be completely hopeless.

His old seat was considered Tilt R, and the new one is Lean/Likely D. As explained, it could still be competitive. If he drops out, it also narrows the Republican field, which is critical.

[Heisenberg]

Maybe the FL GOP wants Jolly out to help them unite behind one candidate (plus he's to the left of DeSantis and CLC) and I think he does have a small chance against Crist in FL-13 (though definately an underdog). They really need to just focus behind one candidate, IMO.
Also bumping these up from the previous page:
Murphy allegedly traded donations for favors.

He also misstated his CPA experience, according to a report.

[Heisenberg]

Fine. I won't do it again. Since it was the second to last post on the last page, just wanted to put it back up front. I've read that the NRSC thinks Priviledged Patrick is deeply flawed, and it looks like here's some more stuff they can use as ammo.

[Heisenberg]

St Pete Polls for FL-13: Jolly and Crist tied at 44%.

If Crist loses this race, I'll be pissed off because another Democrat could likely win it (this same poll shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 10 points in the district, while Crist and Jolly are tied. Also, 53% of respondents said they voted Obama in 2012). I really hope Jolly stays in the Senate race so Dems can safely lock up this seat... If Crist loses yet another winnable race his political career should be over for good.

Jolly seems like a Republican who has crossover appeal. The article shows that he is still very popular, and doing really well with moderate and independent voters. That's why he's keeping it competitive.

[Heisenberg]

I endorsed Crist for governor in 2014, but only because Rick Scott was utterly terrible. I'd vote for Jolly over Crist in a heartbeat. I don't believe Crist has any real political beliefs at all.

Of course he doesn't. He will literally say anything, and believe whatever just to try to win. Unfortunately, that doesn't keep people in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area from voting for him. The people over there seem to love him.

[Heisenberg]

Marco will save us!

I certainly hope so!

Me too.

[Heisenberg]

I hope Murphy crushes him

Me too. He doesn't deserve reelection as it is, and he is exploiting a terrorist attack to shameless relaunch his career.

Eeewww. Priviledged Patrick. Also, he's 33. I'm scared that if he wins, he'll become entrenched, and 40 years from now or so (if Democrats have the Senate Majority) he'll be PPT.

[Heisenberg]

I hope Murphy crushes him

Me too. He doesn't deserve reelection as it is, and he is exploiting a terrorist attack to shameless relaunch his career.

Eeewww. Priviledged Patrick. Also, he's 33. I'm scared that if he wins, he'll become entrenched, and 40 years from now or so (if Democrats have the Senate Majority) he'll be PPT.

Priviledged? He was raised by a mother who was drug addict during his entire childhoud.

That's the derogatory nickname the NRSC gave him. His upbringing was not too priviledged, what the ad refers to is that his dad is wealthy and is pumping in lots of money to his campaign.

[Heisenberg]

I hope Murphy crushes him

Me too. He doesn't deserve reelection as it is, and he is exploiting a terrorist attack to shameless relaunch his career.

Eeewww. Priviledged Patrick. Also, he's 33. I'm scared that if he wins, he'll become entrenched, and 40 years from now or so (if Democrats have the Senate Majority) he'll be PPT.

Nah, he'll give up his seat to run for POTUS in 2028.

No. He'll look at Rubio, and avoid running for President in a year when his seat is up. I know he's not that stupid. If Murphy wins, Republicans will likely lose Florida's Class 3 seat for good.

[Heisenberg]

I'm now debating between DeSantis and Beruff in the primary, I would love Rubio to run again to see him crash and burn again.

Beruff? Why would you root for him, he wants to ban Muslims from entering the US, I heard. Or do you want to see him go down in flames in the general?

[Heisenberg]

I'm now debating between DeSantis and Beruff in the primary, I would love Rubio to run again to see him crash and burn again.

Beruff? Why would you root for him, he wants to ban Muslims from entering the US, I heard. Or do you want to see him go down in flames in the general?

I literally never heard about that, if true, then it's between DeSantis and Lopez-Cantera then.

Here's the article
He actually proposed banning "Middle Easterners (Muslim and non-Muslim), but still. He also says he stands by his comments.

[Heisenberg]

Trumps biggest problem in Florida is Cubans, who also happen to be Rubio's base in Florida.  He's gonna over-perform Trump BIG TIME in South Florida, just look at the primary map.  I'm not worried at all.

Right. Many of the Trump primary voters will come home to Rubio in the general; Florida is a closed primary state, I believe. And Cubans in Miami-Dade County will push him over the top (I think).

^Chill. I'm just glad that I can move this race from Safe D to Tossup now. Sorry, but Beruff (lol), Wilcox, Jolly, DeSantis and CLC would have all lost by double or high single digits to Murphy or Grayson. Rubio vs. Murphy is a tossup, and of course Republicans shouldn't get too cocky about this race. Both Murphy and Grayson CAN beat Rubio.

Anyway, IMO the FL Senate race now becomes a must win for the GOP, since Democrats are already guaranteed to win in NH (Safe D), heavily favored to win WI (Lean D) and slightly favored to win IL (Tilt D).

I agree. Rubio clearly is the strongest Republican for this seat, and now, instead of having a fractured field, the Establishment and donors can rally around an incumbent. The three you mentioned will give Democrats 3 of the 4 seats for the majority (since they're favored to win the presidency at this point). Republicans blew the Class 3 seat from Colorado (as they always do), and have to win all the other competitive races (unless they pick up Nevada, which is a toss up). Arizona is probably gone if McCain falls, IMO.

[Heisenberg]

What, you don't think Kelli Chemtrail can hold that seat?

Are you joking? McCain already has far more statewide recognition, and seems to do much better in the polls. He also does better with moderates and Hispanics, who I doubt would be too fond of Kelli Ward. If McCqin is down by 2 (even in a D internal poll), Ward is a weak candidate.

[Heisenberg]

Now that Murphy's campaign has imploded, is there enough time for Graham to jump in?  I hope not.

She (or anyone else) has 50 hours to file. But it sounds like she's sitting out to run for governor in 2018.

[Heisenberg]

A bit of a tangent, but will DeSantis be in any trouble for dropping down to run for re-election?

I think he has more cash on hand than the other candidates combined, and I believe at least one of his primary opponents said he (or she) is dropping out with DeSantis's reentry. He may clear the field by the end of the week, but should still be favored to win the primar and general regardless. I don't think Jolly had any primary opposition.

[Heisenberg]

Even as a Democratic hack, I'll admit that Murphy story is bad. Really bad. Not SAFE R bad, but bad.

That being said, it's survivable. This is the kind of revelation that can sink a bad candidate (John Walsh 2014) or not be a big deal at all in the end (Blumenthal 2010, which I'd argue was worse). If Murphy is the political wunderkind some of us believe he is, he'll be able to navigate his way around this.

That being said, if this hits as bad as it can hit, this is probably a Lean R race. And if Gwen Graham suddenly comes into the race 2 days before the filing deadline, I wouldn't complain.

A bit of a tangent, but will DeSantis be in any trouble for dropping down to run for re-election?

Most of the field dropped out for him, either entirely or moving to the open FL-04 race. Alex Mooney, Brandon Patty, and David Santiago are all out. Only Fred Costello remains.

I was hoping Dems would contest this seat with or without DeSantis, as it moved heavily to the left in redistricting. Obama even won it in '08 by a slim margin.

Pat Mooney, not Alex (his brother from WV-02). What's the new PVI for FL-06? The old one was R+8. And it should be noted that DeSantis defeated Costello in the GOP primary in 2012, and as an incumbent, he should do so again. Maybe he can run for the other seat in 2018. Also, I remember Walsh's plagiarism (he would have lost to Daines anyway, I think), but what was the deal with Blumenthal (not to get too off track, just curious)?

[Heisenberg]

Interesting article about Beruff's ties to Changing Charlie and past support for liberals. He supported Crist over Rubio in 2010 after he left the GOP to run to the left of Rubio, and promising to caucus with the Democrats if elected. Which is strange because now, Beruff is running to the right of Rubio. He also supported Christine Jennings, a very liberal (unsuccessful) Democratic candidate for the House a while back. Hopefully Rubio can cruise to reelection.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/rubio-challenger-supported-pro-choice-democrat-for-congress/article/2003025