Will TRUMP get the required 1,237 delegates before the convention? (user search)
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  Will TRUMP get the required 1,237 delegates before the convention? (search mode)
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Yes
 
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No
 
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Total Voters: 98

Author Topic: Will TRUMP get the required 1,237 delegates before the convention?  (Read 4285 times)
Seneca
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Posts: 245


« on: April 18, 2016, 10:08:48 AM »

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Let's say, 1 in Minnesota, 1 in Oklahoma, 1 in Louisiana, 2 in US Virgin Islands, 1 in Guam, 4 in American Samoa, 2 in North Dakota. 5 in PA, 2 in NH.

That's what, 15 delegates? 

I was imagining (at an absolute maximum, these are not likely at all):

1 in NH, 1 in AL, 1 in OK, 8 in VT, 2 in LA, 3 in VI, 5 in GU, 7 in AS, 5 in ND, and 42 in PA.

More realistic average projections would be:

1 in AL, 1 in OK, 2 in VT, 1 in VI, 2 in GU, 4 in AS, 2 in ND, and 28 in PA, for a total of 41.

Pennsylvania is by far his easiest target, and the only place outside of the insular territories where he's likely to pick up a good share of the unbound delegates.  Vermont is a wildcard, but I would disfavor him there.

So if we take your "average" projection of Trump picking up 41 unbound delegates, he may be ok going into the convention with only 1196 pledged delegates.
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