Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

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Florida due today.  Virginia Sat, and IOWA and NEW HAMPSHIRE next week

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Numbers from the last reputable poll of FL, taken in December:

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/FL-GOP-PP-12.17.15.pdf

Trump 30
Cruz 20
Rubio 15
Bush 13
Carson 8
Christie 6
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Kasich 1
Pataki <1
Santorum  <1
Graham 0
Huckabee 0
Gilmore 0

Rubio's support has increased at the expense of Jeb, but everything else is about the same.

Maybe this is luck, or maybe they're just herding, but there's a chance that they have become at least OK at polling.

What do the rest of you think - is it time to resume including these polls in the maps/database?

. Overtime's poll Trump 32 Cruz 21 Rubio 19 Bush 9.  Stable except that some Bush support is going to Rubio.

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PPP is doing Iowa next week also, so it will be interesting to do a comparison

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R in Iowa has a 27-27 tie with Rubio 15 and Carson 9

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Overtime Politics New Hampshire Released just now



Donald Trump 30%
John Kasich 15%
Marco Rubio 13%
Chris Christie 9%
Ted Cruz 9%
Jeb Bush 6%
Carly Fiorina 5%
Ben Carson 4%
Rand Paul 2%
Other 1%
Undecided 6%

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Overtime Politics schedule
1/17 IL
1/19 MN
1/22 NV
1/25 NC
1/28 OH
1/31 IA

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http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-leads-marco-rubio-by-20-points-in-illinois-36-16/

Donald Trump – 36%
Marco Rubio  – 16%
Ted Cruz – 15%
Jeb Bush – 5%
Ben Carson – 5%
John Kasich – 5%
Carly Fiorina – 5%
Chris Christie – 3%
Rand Paul – 3%
Other – 2%
Undecided – 6%

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Overtime Politics has Minnesota on Tuesday, and Nevada next Friday...

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http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-leads-marco-rubio-by-17-points-in-minnesota-37-20/

Donald Trump – 37%
Marco Rubio – 20%
Ted Cruz – 11%
Ben Carson – 10%
Jeb Bush – 8%
John Kasich – 3%
Carly Fiorina – 2%
Chris Christie – 2%
Rand Paul – 2%
Other – 1%
Undecided – 5%

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If you look at he OP analysis, they say Sanders may have a bigger margin because the OMalley people willnot meet the threshold, and are more likely to go to sanders.    Repuiblicans don't do it that way, and remove the beloe threshold based on the secret ballot.  No second choice for the Rs.

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Massachusetts

Trump 43
Rubio 12
Cruz 10
Kasich 9
Bush 8
Carson 6
Christie 3
Fiorina 2


Clinton 50
Sanders 44