SurveyUSA: Biden+10

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yall I think Biden might be leading.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

What I would give for a Texas poll right about now.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Of likely voters interviewed by SurveyUSA after Trump and Biden debated 09/29/2020 but before Trump had revealed his COVID diagnosis, Biden led Trump by 8 points, 51% to 43%. In the tiny window of time between when Trump acknowledged his illness but before he was hospitalized, Trump closed to within 4 points, Biden 50%, Trump 46. In interviews completed after Trump had been helicoptered to Bethesda, Biden appears to have consolidated support, leading by 16 points among likely voters interviewed most recently, 56% to 40%.

So

Post-Debate, Pre-Covid: Biden +8
Post-Covid, Pre-Hospital, Biden +4
Post-Hospital: Biden +16

Fascinating.

It actually does substantiate the idea that Trump could have gotten a small, if temporary, bump in support from being diagnosed. But then that was more than wiped away once it was apparent he was genuinely ill.

Eh, more likely that the +4 was just noise. Would be curious to see how many voters were surveyed during that time period, I'm betting not very many.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Barring some major gaffe or episode from Biden, this election is over. I understand people are still fearful of 2016, but Hillary was not leading by an average of 9-10% nationally in October 2016.

The biggest risk now is Trump and the GOP attempting to have all mail in ballots thrown out.

Even more importantly, she was never over 50%, something we are routinely seeing for Biden now - the highest she ever got in the averages was about 46%, due to the larger number of voters saying they were undecided or planning to vote third party.