When did you feel Hillary Clinton was in Danger of losing

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

First time was while watching the Comey press conference live. It was very clear to me how that was going to play in the press - "indictment of her character" etc. Stayed that way for maybe a month. Never panicked, during that stage, but was concerned.

Second time was about two days after the Weiner laptop story broke. My best friend was getting married the next day and I was a groomsman, and I didn't have much of any time to follow the news until after that. Once I finally absorbed it, I was in a panic for the remainder of the campaign.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm going to quote some of my analysis posts from my predictions to lay out how my thoughts shifted over the course of the campaign. Apparently I was more nervous in early September than I remember being.

August 14:

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September 11:

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October 9:

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October 24:

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October 28 (Day of the Comey Letter):

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November 1:

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November 7:

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[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Quoting from what I was posting on Facebook on election night and the night before.

November 7, 2016, 9:18 PM:

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November 8, 2016, 8:56 PM (By this point it is clear the panic I felt the last week before the election is justified and the election is going to be very close):

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November 8, 2016, 11:33 PM (By this point I thought it was clear Trump was more likely than not to win):

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November 8, 2016, 11:50 PM:

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November 9, 2016, 1:21 AM (When it was clear to me that there was no realistic path for Clinton):

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[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I mean, what can you say when the "stupider" school of thought actually turned out to be right?

I'll give the people who "predicted" it some accolades, but for the vast majority of the race, the evidence did point to a Clinton win. Trump people had "their gut," "social media," and "crowd sizes." Does them getting it right make them any smarter or more astute? I think no... but they think so. And that is one of the many reasons why the post-Trump atmosphere has been so insufferable. "Gut," in all its forms, has been validated. That means fake news, racism, violence... Pretty sucky.

I believe this is what is called the Dunning-Kruger effect.