It's over.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Even if Trump loses Indiana, it's over.

This is my worst scenario for Trump:

Indiana: 9/57
Nebraska: 0/36
West Virginia: 31/34
Oregon: 12/28
Washington: 15/44
Montana: 0/27
South Dakota: 0/29
New Jersey: 51/51
New Mexico: 10/24
California At-Large: 13/13

This means Trump wins 141. Right now, he needs 240 delegates to win. 240 - 141 = 99

99 delegates = 33/53 California districts. And also there are 34 uncommitted delegates.

I've been doing projections of high, low, and median scenarios for the delegate math since mid-March, and this basically lines up with my view of the race. Unless Trump's support has a fairly dramatic meltdown in California (unlikely but not impossible), he is either going to be at 1237 or so close that the uncommitted delegates will be shamed into backing him.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Grab this L Ben...

It's also the margins in those counties. 45%+ in many of the VA counties that border WV (and when Trump was polling close to 10% lower nationally), 50%+ in much of eastern KY (despite that being a caucus state, where Trump has generally done poorly), 45-50%+ in the bordering OH counties against that state's sitting governor, over 60% in the bordering counties of southwest PA, and 55%+ in the three counties in the panhandle of MD. I can't imagine Trump getting less than 55% in WV at this point, and something like 60-65% seems more likely.