Wisconsin Megathread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/981320215525982208

Always dubious about stuff like this, but hope it holds up.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Guys, I'm not trolling. I literally just posted that Dallet was pummeling Screnock in Dane county. I just was pointing out that she's underperforming in Milwaukee.

I don't know what parts of Milwaukee are in, but bear in mind that it is a heavily segregated city.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Dallet at 64% in Eau Claire County with nearly all precincts in.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Screnock is doing well in Waukesha County, outperforming Trump there.

65-35 is only 1% better than Trump did, so it's not really that strong a margin.

Trump failed to crack 60%.

Just barely.  He got 59.6%, I believe.  But the thing to remember is that Trump's margins in the WOW counties were not great for a Republican.  It was his strength out west that carried him to victory.  Matching his percentage in WOW won't win it for Republicans unless they also match his (much better) percentages elsewhere.

He's doing worse than Romney, which seems significant. Some of the movement in the suburbs is sticking.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Dallet leading in Brown County now, 55-45.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Feels like a safe bet that Sheboygan County should get closer, given the margins in Waukesha and Ozaukee.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Gotta feel decent about holding Minnesota-08 with those margins in Bayfield and Ashland counties.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Sheboygan County now 100% in, Screnock 55%-45%. In line with the Romney 54%-44% result in 2012 presidential.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Wow, Milwaukee county supervisor district 1 is at 103% reporting.

gotta get in that graveyard vote.

Something, something, dead people from Chicago

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So, when does Waukesha magically dump 110,000 missing votes for Screnock?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

Republicans haven’t been able to beat Trumps margins in suburban countries in almost any election since 2016. So I am not sure why that is likely to change with Walker.

First of all, he’s the incumbent and has had a long history of contrasting himself against the crime rates and ghettoes of Milwaukee as well as union workers in order to win over the suburbs. Second of all, Dems couldn’t even recall him during the nadir of his governorship. Third, thanks to the alt-right and Trump, Walker now looks more moderate.

This has surely been pointed out a billion times before, but I'll make the point anyway: Walker ran against the recall itself, casting it as an illegitimate option.

I'm not even going to get into your stereotyped portrayal of Milwaukee...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Nominating someone heavily tied to the crime-infested "Chicago-lite" city of Milwaukee would be the Dems shooting themselves on the foot.

WOW is not your average suburb, they are not in our path to victory.

Milwaukee suburbs seem like they are very much the old white flight-style suburbs that hate the city they surround. Very different from DC/Philadelphia/Chicago suburbs that (nowadays, anyway) actually see themselves as partners with their cities.