Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Virginiá]

well that sucks

[Virginiá]

well that sucks

understatement of the year?

Unless you live in Wisconsin I don't see how it would merit any stronger of a reaction than that.

Yea I mean I get why it'd be a bigger deal to a WI resident, but to me, I look at it almost entirely through the context of redistricting and other election-related rulings, and on that front, Evers being Governor kind of mitigates the fallout from this. If Republicans wanted to change the law and try to ignore precedent and implement new maps by resolution instead of statute, the time was in the lame duck, not after. Now, afaik, they are locked into the current process. Although I could be wrong I guess.

[Virginiá]

Screnock ran/had a bad campaign run for him. Hagedorn ran a good campaign. Screnock was a decent candidate, but Hagedorn either knew how to run or knew who to ask and Screnock didn’t. Political awareness vs just being a judge.

Can this be elaborated on or is it the typical Atlas post-election history revision where a bad campaign turns into a good campaign just because they stumbled into a win? Because it's still very possible if not the most likely explanation for most elections that a candidate won regardless of how "good" or "bad" their campaign was.

[Virginiá]

I'm sorry, but after last week's SCOTUS race, I doubt there will be fair redistricting in Wisconsin for at least another decade.

I mean, Republicans don't really have an option to bypass Evers now. They can't override a veto and the state courts have already ruled (albeit generations ago) that redistricting is done by statute. It'll probably get punted to the courts, but there is no evidence of state judiciaries brazenly gerrymander themselves. The worst that has happened since the last redistricting cycle is courts adopting interim maps based on gerrymanders, but those are only temporary (or supposed to be). Maybe at worst the courts come up with a plan that is slightly more favorable to Republicans than Democrats but still within the bounds of reasonable.

[Virginiá]

Not a whole lot of choices since Republicans want the election to go on as they believe turnout will be significantly depressed in urban (aka Democratic-leaning) areas, allowing them to maintain their current 5 - 2 state supreme court majority.

[Virginiá]

I hope national Democrats are paying attention and have plans to force the GOP to accept national mail voting for November. Otherwise, the GOP is going to use the pandemic as an excuse to shut down polling places in Democratic-leaning areas while insisting that the election go on as planned. Most states will probably be reasonable about it, but the GOP will aggressively move to restrict voting as much as possible in many of the states that actually matter - North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Florida...

This is bordering on 3rd world country levels of corruption.

[Virginiá]

I wouldn't necessarily say "pro-death," although they are being incredibly reckless. I don't know what the deal is up to this point, but as early as a week ago (give or take), Wisconsin's major cities were looking at barely a fraction of the number of in-person polling places they normally have, and no time for the people to adjust. You can't just expect hundreds of thousands of people to seamlessly switch to absentee voting by mail. And how are they supposed to do that if they are being told to stay away from other people, yet need a witness to be present when they sign their ballot?

The Wisconsin Republican Party is trying to hold an election that people - namely those from urban areas - can't vote in. What is this, Venezuela? No honest believer in free and fair elections should want anything to do with this.

[Virginiá]

But why isn't the WI07 election scheduled for tomorrow? Why did the governor choose to delay?

It can't be voter supression right? Dems good, republicans bad111!!

Evers lord savior, he cares so much about people.

If Evers want to tilt that special election towards Democrats, he would have scheduled it to be on the same day as the Democratic primary, which would then include it in this fight because now is quite possibly the worst time to try and hold an election.

I don't know why it isn't on the same day, but by doing so, he's certainly not benefiting Democrats. Not everything is a power play.

[Virginiá]

Holy crap.  If there's a controversy this fall, they're going to 5/4 let the state legislatures assign electors to their preferred candidate (results in an automatic Trump reelection if governors can't veto),  aren't they? 

EDIT: To be clear, I don't like the last minute rule change and would favor moving the whole thing to a different, safer time but holding it under the same rules as before.

I wouldn't rule out some states trying this. Based on how the economy is going, Republicans could get wiped out if we hold fair elections. With redistricting coming up, the stakes have never been higher for them in recent memory.

If you think about it, this catastrophe really gives Republicans some opportunities to play dirty. They can first try and use the pandemic to shut down polling places in Democratic-leaning areas, and if that causes issues with the courts, they can then say the election results are not reliable and use their power to assign the electoral votes themselves. Not hard to see this happening in many of the states expected to be competitive (or on the edge of competitiveness) this cycle - GA, NC, AZ, FL, WI, etc.

[Virginiá]

I deleted this because after I read portions of the opinion, I no longer agree with it.  They were dealing narrowly with the change the rules at the last minute issue and came down against it.  If anything, that would make them less amenable to allowing legislatures to just assign EV after planning to hold a statewide popular vote.

I'm thinking worst case scenarios, but the way this has played out, it's not looking good. I'd like to see if and how SCOTUS weighs in on a challenge to the legitimacy of the results in an election where Milwaukee/Madison/etc will have few if any polling stations open - a decision made very recently, giving voters little to no time to even try and vote another way. Not sure how it could be constitutional when so many voters are not given the means to actually vote.

[Virginiá]

Why did Evers wait so long before trying to play the executive order card if he was going to do it in the end? Even doing this two weeks ago could have helped prevent some histrionics and allowed fro better contingency planning.

I don't know for sure, but it's possible that their inability to actually staff polling stations played a role. It was a no-win situation.

The fact is, this is not a good time to hold an election. And on top of that, the government can't tell people they can vote in-person, then have them go to try and vote despite the health risks only to find out there are virtually no polling stations open in the entire city. Not to mention the scores of people who asked for absentee ballots and never got them.

I really don't see how this can be a valid election at this point.

[Virginiá]

This is doubly irritating to me because WI Republicans are so power hungry that they want elderly poll workers to still volunteer their time and risk their health (not to mention voters as well) just so Republicans can have a better chance at maintaining a comfortable state Supreme Court majority, as opposed to a narrow majority if they were to lose the seat. What difference does it make to them? This is nothing but a reckless disregard for life in the pursuit of power.

[Virginiá]

How the  can you have FIVE polling stations open in a city of 600,000 and call that a fair election?

They have one polling station in Waukesha which has more than 70 thousand people, even though it's a Republican stronghold.
They simply don't give a f**k.

I truly hope that the hubris of this whole situation ends up backfiring on them, and Kelly ends up losing the seat regardless. Give us something!

We'll see!

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1247555220348883052

[Virginiá]

Doesn't really matter who wins, in my opinion. This election's legitimacy has been forever tainted due to the pandemic causing a severe drop in in-person polling stations in some areas, and thousands of absentee ballots never being sent to people who rightfully requested them. And all of this happening on such short notice, in addition to reckless obstruction from the WIGOP, gave little to no time for people to even try to find another safer way to vote.

[Virginiá]

I'm really trying not to get my hopes up here... things always seem to look good for the Democrats in Wisconsin and then it just all goes wrong.

Keep in mind that if Democrats win the judicial race, Republicans will likely just file a lawsuit to throw the results out because of the very problems they refused to take into consideration when Evers asked to delay the election. And they'll probably get their way based on who has the final say at both the state and federal level.

[Virginiá]

Keep in mind that if Democrats win the judicial race, Republicans will likely just file a lawsuit to throw the results out because of the very problems they refused to take into consideration when Evers asked to delay the election. And they'll probably get their way based on who has the final say at both the state and federal level.

I don't think they would be successful.

That would be a real shame and a major black eye for the idea of democracy if they didn't, imo. I still think these results should be thrown out, even if for different reasons than the GOP might want in the end. This kind of disparity cannot be allowed:

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-has-66-polling-sites-on-election-day-milwaukee-has-five-whats-the-deal/article_8868bacf-6697-5cf4-aa4f-d85fb37cf846.html

A city that normally has nearly 200 polling stations only has 5 open on election day. Not to mention Green Bay's 2-3 polling stations. The only way that is acceptable is if you've mailed everyone a ballot so they don't have to go out. And all of this happened on relatively short notice, too.

[Virginiá]

I think absentee ballot request forms were mailed, not actual ballots. Might be wrong, though. If it was request forms, that would be extra processing costs vs just sending them a ballot.

[Virginiá]

^^ That is one way for states to mitigate turnout/safety issues without relying on changes to the law from Congress or the state legislature. It might even encourage Republicans to make the process easier because if all the major cities do it, they won't want to be left out. On the other hand, they could just as easily seek to prevent cities from doing this.

In some states, it might not be a viable option if the absentee request rules are too onerous. For instance, I'm not sure if Texas has any plans to make fear of getting COVID-19 a valid excuse in requesting an absentee ballot. For TX, these are the only excuses listed:

https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/voter/reqabbm.shtml

To be eligible to vote early by mail in Texas, you must:

    be 65 years or older;
    be disabled;
    be out of the county on election day and during the period for early voting by personal appearance; or
    be confined in jail, but otherwise eligible.

The bare minimum compromise in Congress should be to at least force states to allow people to request absentee ballots if they fear getting sick. Most states already allow this, so it's really just for the holdouts .

[Virginiá]

Thanks! I didn't catch that!

[Virginiá]

Always interesting to see conservatives threatening jail time for people who make an honest mistake in light of confusing rules when it comes to voting. Seems to be a real proud southern conservative tradition.

If someone is not allowed to vote, the burden should be on the state to tell them so. There is no reason they can't manage that given the technology we now have. This is even more true when Republicans are constantly adding more and more restrictions for partisan gain.

[Virginiá]

I'll hold my thoughts on that because it seems whether it's in state or federal court, there is a good chance it will get reversed on appeal.

[Virginiá]

Kelly will win. Mark my words.

Don't you get tired of this?

[Virginiá]

The importance of Supreme Court majorities in swing states can't be understated; glad that Janet seemingly is the favorite but we absolutely shouldn't rest on our laurels or take anything for granted.

Yeah, realistically, the only way Democrats are going to have a shot at winning a majority in the legislature is through breaking the GOP gerrymanders, and they need the court to do that. Otherwise they are just going to have to settle for an increasingly impotent governor's office in a competitive state.

[Virginiá]

This certainly looks how sane and functioning democracies work.

How does Wisconsin, at least one heart of the Progressive movement, not have a robust initiative and referendum process?

Voters had a chance 100+ years ago but they shot it down as no party really made a case for it, and the Dems/GOP were publicly against it. Probably a good example of voters not really thinking too hard about what they were voting for.

Never go against a ballot initiative amendment. It's rare for a legislature to offer that and if you turn it down once, you probably won't get another opportunity. Lawmakers hate sharing power.

[Virginiá]

This certainly looks how sane and functioning democracies work.

How does Wisconsin, at least one heart of the Progressive movement, not have a robust initiative and referendum process?

Voters had a chance 100+ years ago but they shot it down as no party really made a case for it, and the Dems/GOP were publicly against it. Probably a good example of voters not really thinking too hard about what they were voting for.

Never go against a ballot initiative amendment. It's rare for a legislature to offer that and if you turn it down once, you probably won't get another opportunity. Lawmakers hate sharing power.

The counterpoint is that if you vote for a ballot initiative amendment, you'll be stuck with ballot initiatives forever. I can't think of a better reason to vote against it.

I guess it depends how you look at it. Initiatives have been a key driver for marijuana legalization, and we'd never be where we are without it. It's also allowed voters in some states to end gerrymandering and roll back voter restrictions. Granted, it gets abused as well at times, but to me personally, it's well worth it. There are so many policies that never would have had a chance without voters being able to put it to a vote themselves.