i could see some pub seats going in nj if dems win big in the house delegation and the commission wants to protect incumbents. possibly ungerrymandered atlanta seats if abrams wins, and nc if the gop can’t go crazy with the lines anymore. some seat in the detroit area will go, balderson’s district could become even/d-leaning with ohio’s ballot initiative, and ny-22 might get chopped up (it will be some upstate district)
Could they even adequately protect the number of Democrats that seem to be on track to winning (10-11)? NJ is a state where Republicans tend to do fairly well downballot when a Democrat is in the White House, like wayyy over-performing the presidential results, so any good map that ensures a certain high # of Dem seats would seem to require being more practical and less greedy.
There is a initiative on the ballot this year that establishes a commission over redistricting. Its members are prominent statewide elected officials and the majority/minority leaders of the legislature. So it is not independent, but multi-partisan - maps need to be agreed to by members of both sides. If they are not agreed, then the old Legislature+Gov route can pass a map, but it only holds for 4 years. This initiative is endorsed by both sides (Dems see it as reform, reps see it as reform that still has them hold power), so will pass overwhelmingly.
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It already passed overwhelmingly. It was on the ballot in the primary.
